Dota 2: After The Epicenter Major and StarLadder Minor Season 2


Summary of Events

All the 2018/2019 DPC Events (aside from The International 2019) are done. Twelve teams have earned their invite. At Epicenter TNC, OG, Keen held onto their spots, while EHOME (which failed to qualify for the event) lost its 12th place spot to Alliance. First, the highlights.

Fnatic, which had earned a top 3 finish two Majors ago, but flopped out in the first round at the last Major, continued their terrible performance, losing to Royal Never Give Up twice and Forward Gaming in a best of one. As a result they released their carry, MP, moved their pos 5, Jabz to pos 1, and acquired DuBu.

More astonishing was the defeat of the unbeatable Secret. They beat Royal and Pain to top Group A, but lost in the upper bracket to VP and were eliminated by OG without N0tail.

OG performed surprisingly well without their captain who suffered through gastronomic distress. They lost to NiP and TNC in Group D, but beat EG in a bo1, and Secret 2-0. While N0tail planned to return, they were eliminated by LGD.

EG was another top team which suffered losses similar to Fnatic and Secret. They lost to Liquid and Gambit in Group B, before losing their bo1 to OG.

TNC, which had only performed in the first Major, transformed themselves to beat OG and NiP in Group D, and Royal Never Give Up in the playoffs, before losing to Vici in the upper bracket. They beat LGD before losing to VP for a 4th place finish.

With an incredible run which included beating VP in Group C, Alliance secured the last spot at TI9. They had to defeat Infamous, Royal Never Give Up, and Gambit in the lower bracket before falling in a rematch to VP.

Liquid and Vici ended up being the stars of the Epicenter. No team beat Vici Gaming, and the only team to beat Liquid was Vici, twice. As a result, Vici jumps four places into 2nd place for Awkward Mixture's Power Rankings.

Royal Never Give Up and Gambit came close, but both failed to secure a direct invite. After beating EG in the Group B decider to secure an upper bracket spot, Gambit lost to Vici, beating NiP, and losing to Alliance. Royal beat Fnatic twice in Group A, before losing to TNC and Alliance to fall out of the playoffs.

Readers might be wondering why NAVI, EHOME, and Keen Gaming are worth mentioning. Keen, who had already secured an invite, failed to make the Minor or Major. They dropped precipitously in the power rankings. EHOME, who made the Minor, but not the Major, also dropped, but out of the invites. NAVI, in spite of failing to make the Major or Minor, looked good in the qualifiers. They will certainly challenge Gambit for the remaining CIS spot.

In all, many of the top teams performed poorly. Were Secret, EG, and Ninjas practicing new techniques since they had already secured their invites? In Ninja's case, one wonders if they almost wanted to lose, letting an Alliance vs Gambit match-up happen. That way those two teams could determine their own fate.

Changes

The teams who improved the most on the Power Rankings were;
TNC from sub 20 to 10th.
Gambit, from sub 20 to 13th.
Alliance, up 7.
NAVI, up 6.
Royal Never Give Up, up 5.
And Vici, up 4.

On the other hand, the worst were;
Complexity, down 4.
EHOME, down 4.
Mineski, down 5.
And Keen, down 8.

The International 2019 Regional Qualifiers

Now that the 12 direct invites have been earned, each of the six regions now has one additional spot to qualify through. For each region here are my picks.

Europe – The Final Tribe (42) or new Chaos (?).
China – Royal Never Give Up (12), Sirius (19), EHOME (20), Aster (23), Newbee (28), or Royal (29).
SEA – Mineski (17) or Boom ID (27).
NA – Forward (15), Complexity (17), J.Storm (21).
CIS – Gambit (13), NAVI (14), Winstrike (30), Empire (31), Spirit (35), or new Pango (37).
SA – Pain (22), Team Anvorgesa (43), Thunder Predator (70).

Valve's invites nearly mirror mine, but I don't include (new) beastcoast, and I do include Newbee and Royal from China, along with (new) The Pango from CIS.


Awkward Mixture's Dota Power Rankings

The number in brackets indicates the change in ranking since the end of the MDL Disneyland® Paris Major. Teams in Red participated in the Major, Blue in the Minor, and Black failed to qualify for either. An * indicates the team secured a spot at the International. Readers can compare these Power Rankings to DPC points here.

Top Tier:
1. Secret* (0)
2.Vici Gaming* (+4) 1st Place
3. Team Liquid* (+1) 2nd Place

Upper Middle Tier:
4. Virtus Pro* (-2) 3rd Place
5. LGD* (-2)
6. Evil Geniuses* (-1)
7. OG* (0)

Middle Tier:
8. Alliance* (+7)
9. Fnatic* (-1)
10. TNC* (New) 4th Place
11. Ninjas in Pyjamas* (-2)

Lower Middle Tier:
12. Royal Never Give Up (+5)
13. Gambit (New)
14. NAVI (+6)

Bottom Tier:
15. Forward (+3)
16. Mineski (-5)
17. Complexity Gaming (-4)
18. Keen Gaming* (-8)
19. Sirius (New)
20. EHOME (-4)

Additional Participants in the Major or Minor
22. Pain Gaming
24. Infamous
30. Winstrike
43. Team Anvorgesa

Off the top 20:
Aster
Boom ID
Chaos


A Review of Regional Invites for Majors

Throughout the 2018/2019 Dota Pro Circuit, fans and personalities argued over which regions deserved additional invites. Valve mandated that each Major invite two teams from each of the six regions, with one spot for the winner of the Minor, and three spots to be awarded however the tournament organizer decided. Europe and China receiving an additional invite every event, while North America received an additional invite for the first four Majors. But at the last Major, North America only got 2, and the top two Minor winners were both invited, instead of one.

Should Europe, China, and North America have received these additional spots? Should they have gone to another region? The answer can be determined by looking at what each region achieved relative to their invites. While one could factor in the Minor invites as well, it is possible to understand the relative results without them, so we'll restrict ourselves to the Majors.

Europe and China received 3 invites at every Major, meaning they averaged 3.

North America averaged 2.8 Major invites.

CIS, SEA, and SA averaged 2 invites.

But each each Major included 16 teams, and there are only twelve direct invites to the International. A bit of math shows what each region should have accomplished.

China and EU should have secured 2.43 spots each. NA should have gotten 2.27. CIS, SEA, and SA each should have earned 1.62. In addition, each region receives an additional spot at The International 2019. There are twelve direct invites, but one qualifier for one each of the regions. So the final tally is

China/EU – 3.43 expected teams
NA – 3.27
CIS/SEA/SA – 2.62

Of course, the final results don't tally with the expected. The region which most over-performed was Europe. Instead of their expected 3.43 teams, six teams will attend TI9. China outperformed their 3.43 with 4. South East Asia beat their 2.62 with 3. CIS mildly underachieved, with 2 for their 2.62 expected. North America, which had been granted 3 invites for 4 of the Majors, only secured 2 for their 3.27 expected, a -1.27 failure. But the worst of all, which I've mentioned in every Dota blog post, was South America, which failed to earn a single one of the 12 direct invites. Their solo team at The International 2019 will arrive through their regional qualifier. They missed out on an expected 1.62 teams.

The next Dota article will be either before the Group Stage at the International, or after it, but before the Playoffs. Keep an eye out.

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