Dota 2: The Pro Scene After The OGA Dota PIT Minor and MDL Disneyland® Paris Major


The fourth DPC Major/Minor set is complete. Here are the takeaways and thoughts going forward.

It's time to reevaluate the standings. The number one goal of every team is to earn one of the prestigious direct invites to
The International 2019. After the recent MDL Disneyland Paris Major, eight teams are qualified for direct invites to The International, with four spots remaining. Secret, Virtus Pro, Evil Geniuses, Vici, LGD, Fnatic, Ninjas in Pyjamas, and Liquid will be at the Mercedes-Benz Arena in Shanghai. Keen, OG, TNC, and J.Storm are currently in the top 12 for DPC points, but have not earned enough points to guarantee an invite. Of these, only the last two are in danger. TNC missed the last two Majors, and J.Storm failed to qualify for the MDL Major. Even still, they are somewhat safe. Teams without any points need a 5th or 6th place finish at the final Major to push TNC or J.Storm out. Or, a team with some points could steal the spot. The 13th team, EHOME only needs to attend the Major to overtake J.Storm. But the 14th team, Chaos, would need a 7th-8th place finish to remove J.Storm. Given these facts, it's incredibly unlikely Keen or OG fail to qualify for TI9, but J.Storm needs to attend the Major to defend their ticket. The implausibility of four new teams suddenly winning the top 4 spots in the final Major all but assures Keen and OG their invites.

Before the run down, here is Awkward Mixture's current power rankings. It includes the top 20 teams, plus any teams which participated in either the recent MDL Disneyland® Paris Major or OGA Dota PIT Minor 2019. The number in brackets indicates the change in ranking since the end of the DreamLeague Season 11 Major. Teams in Red participated in the Major, Blue in the Minor, and Black failed to qualify for either. An * indicates the team has secured a spot at the International.

Top Top Tier
1. Secret*                  (+1) 1st Place

Top Tier
2. Virtus Pro*          (-1)
3. LGD*                      (+1) 4th Place
4. Liquid*                 (+3) 2nd Place
5. Evil Geniuses*    (+1) 3rd Place
6. Vici*                       (-3)

Middle Tier:
7. OG                                 (+9)
8. Fnatic*                        (-3)
9. Ninjas in Pyjamas*  (0)
10. Keen Gaming            (0)

Bottom Tier:
11. Mineski                    (+3)
12. Aster                         (+1)
13. Complexity              New Entry
14. Chaos                       (+4)
15. Alliance                    New Entry
16. EHOME                   (-8)
17. Royal Never Give (+3)
18. Foward Gaming    (-7)
19. Boom ID                   New Entry
20. NAVI                          (-3)

Additional Participants in the Major or Minor
22. Empire
23. Gambit
24. Pain (was Butterfly Effec)
29. Majestic Esports
32. beastcoast (was Team Team)

Off the top 20:
21. J.Storm
Disbanded - Flying Penguins

The most successfully inconsistent team is Ninjas in Pyjamas. One is never certain which NiP will walk onto the main stage. In the Minor NiP lost to Royal Never Give Up and Boom ID in the group stage, but then beat (new) Forward Gaming, Alliance, and EHOME to attend the Major, where they lost to Chaos in the Group Stage, before beating them in the Decider Match to claim an upper bracket spot. Then they beat last Major Winner Vici Gaming, before losing to Evil Geniuses and LGD. In short, they lost to Bottom Tier teams like Boom ID, Royal Never Give Up, and Chaos, but also beat good teams like EHOME (earned a 5th place spot in The Chongqing Major), and Top Tier Vici Gaming.

Fnatic, after a third place finish at the last Major, lost to OG and Complexity in the Group Stage, and a best of one to Keen Gaming. OG and Keen are Middle Tier teams, but the loss to Complexity was especially surprising.

Speaking of which, OG is back. -Ish. Ana's return bolstered them, and they leapt from 16th to 7th on the power rankings, earned enough DPC points that they can feel relativity secure, and defeated Top Tier teams Fnatic and VP to do so.

And, the number one team going into MDL Disneyland, VP, got upset twice. While they won their group stage, defeating Liquid and beastcoast, they were surprised by upstart OG, and eliminated by Top Tier LGD.

Regardless of whether Liquid beat Secret, they have clearly returned to form. Their success at Disneyland is reminiscent of their TI7 run (except that they beat Secret in the Lower Bracket Round 2), where they started in the upper bracket, lost, and made a run through the entire lower bracket to the Grand Finals. Of course, at TI7 they crushed Newbee, and at Paris they struggled against Secret.

And Secret. They are in a class of their own. LGD, EG, and Liquid each won a game against them, but it never seemed as if Secret could be vanquished. Their complete record was 13-3 throughout the Major. A stomp the whole way through.

Disneyland Paris clarified something. Europe is the toughest region. 3 of the 4 teams in the Upper Bracket R2 were European, and all four EU teams made it to the top 6. Four EU teams reside in the top 10 on Awkward Mixture's power rankings.

Other team info. EHOME and Forward declined precipitously, while Fnatic, Vici, and NAVI also fell in the Rankings. Meanwhile OG and Complexity surged upwards, while Alliance, Liquid, Chaos, and Mineski made modest gains.

Some final thoughts about the format.

Before concluding it is necessary to reiterate two points. One, the Group Stage format for determining the brackets has been successful, in one aspect. It generates the results one would expect. The best team normally wins the stage, and the worst loses. What it fails to do though, is allow enough teams to play each other. Most teams on the bottom tier never play a top tier team, aside from the single opening match of the Group Stage. The group stage and the playoffs offer plenty of opportunity for Top Tier teams to play each other, and Bottom Tier teams to play each other, and both play against Mid Tier teams, but there is a wall between the Top and the Bottom. They are segregated. Most teams in the group stage only play 2 teams. They should at least play 3, but more would be even better.

Obviously time is an issue. Only so many days can be spent on the Group Phase. Expanding the Group Stage to allow everyone in a group of four to play each other would be an improvement. It could be best of 3s, or 2 game sets. Two game sets are not a perfect solution. They incur disappointment because the result is often a split. But playing more teams would be preferable even if it were two game sets. This format was used this season by ESL One for Hamburg 2018, Katowice 2019, and upcoming Birmingham 2019. All of these were non DPC events, but included a mix of top tier teams and lower tier teams. They all had two groups, composed of six teams, and each played the other five teams twice. MDL Macau 2019, in February, brought together 8 teams, including VP and EG, along with EHOME and Newbee. This was another non-DPC event. In one group, everyone played each other in a single game. A final option was the Group Stage at the recent OGA Dota PIT Minor 2019. There, four team groups played best of threes against the other three members. 
 
Of the four options, the current Major DPC system (four team groups, best of threes against only two teams), ESL One (six team groups, two games against five teams), MDL Macau (eight teams, one game against seven teams), or OGA Dota Pit Minor (four team groups, best of threes against three teams), the ESL One and the Dota Pit Minor are best. While all systems may result in the same outcome, these two options allow teams the best opportunity to play more teams, without sacrificing the number of games played against each other.

Second, the top 3 teams of the last Major, should automatically qualify for the next Major. But, at the same time, as the season closes, it has become clear that two regions so surpass each other, that Valve needs to reconsider the mandatory slots allocated to each region. The top 15 teams according to both my system, and the DPC (though they differ slightly on the actual teams), include 5 from Europe, 4 from China, 2 from NA and SEA, and 1 from CIS and SA. This assumes Chaos is a SA team, even though they just announced they are moving to Europe. Also, CIS and SA are completely different stories. CIS has a top 3 team and a their next best is around 20. SA had Chaos, and its next best is Pain gaming, around 21st. For this reason, the allotments should be as follows for the last Major.

EU 4, China 4, CIS 2, NA 2, SEA 2, SA 1.

One more Minor and Major duo before The International. 

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