Dota 2 Pro Scene: After the StarLadder Minor and DreamLeague Major

The third Minor/Major pair is over, and four teams are locked to attend The International 9 (VP, Secret, EG, Vici), with another two or three all but certain (Fnatic, LGD, and Ninjas in Pyjamas). Top teams with questionable berths are starting to panic, including last years TI winners, OG.

Below, readers will find my current evaluation of the top 20 teams, plus additional teams who participated in either the recent DreamLeague Season 11 Major or StarLadder ImbaTV Dota 2 Minor. The number in brackets indicates the change in ranking since the end of the The Chongqing Major. Teams in Red participated in the Major, Blue in the Minor, and Black failed to qualify for either. An * indicates the team has secured a spot at the International.

Top Tier:
1. Virtus Pro* (+1) 2nd Place
2. Team Secret* (-1) 4th Place
3. Vici Gaming* (+3) 1st Place

Lower Top Tier:
4. LGD (-1)
5. Fnatic (0) 3rd Place
6. Evil Geniuses* (-2)

Upper Middle Tier:
7. Team Liquid (0)
8. EHOME (0)
9. Ninjas in Pyjamas (+6)
10. Keen Gaming (+8)
11. Forward Gaming (-2)

Lower Middle Tier:
12. Gambit (+1)
13. Aster (-1)
14. Mineski New Entry
15. J. Storm (+1)

Bottom Tier:
16. OG (-6)
17. NAVI New Entry
18. Chaos (-1)
19. Flying Penguins New Entry
20. Royal Never Give Up New Entry

Additional Participants in the Major or Minor
21. Old But Gold
23. Demolition
24. Boom ID
31. Infamous

Off the top 20:
TNC
Alliance
The Pango
Tigers

For comparison, here is a picture of the Dota Pro Circuit Points as of 3/27/2019. Also, a link to the page.
Reviewing the numbers, the biggest winner of the last two months was Vici Gaming: a Major Winner, a lock for the International, the only team to defeat both Secret and Virtus Pro, and gaining 3 spots in the rankings. Other winners include Fnatic, with their first top three finish, along with Ninjas and Keen who rose considerably in the rankings. Mineski finally made it into the top 20, with a leap that landed them in 14th place.

The biggest losers were EHOME and Liquid, both of whom failed to earn a spot in the upper bracket, and promptly lost their best of one(s) to 31st place Infamous, and 18th place Chaos respectively. The only good news for them: they both were able to scrape a victory against a reasonable opponent, and then flopped out in a best of one, which my model doesn't penalize as much as losing a best of three. Readers will notice they didn't even drop in the rankings, but this is mostly attributable to how much of a buffer they had prior to entering the Major stage. Other teams weren't so lucky. OG earned only a 5th/6th place finish in the Minor, losing to brand new stacks like Old But Gold and Flying Penguins. TNC failed entirely to even get to the SEA Regional Qualifier for the Minor, losing to Team Admiral in a best of 1 in the SEA Minor Open Qualifiers! This was after finishing 5th/6th at the Kuala Lumpur Major, and ranking 11th in my system after a 9th-12th finish at the Chongqing Major.

In the few days since the Major's conclusion, a number of teams have already announced roster adjustments. The biggest news: OG has convinced Ana to return out of his temporary retirement. Will the reunited TI 8 winning roster rise to new heights? I doubt it, having believed their Championship was a lucky Cinderella story, but then again, I doubted them during their TI8 run, and they won. Maybe Ana is all OG needs to be a top team again. Other changes are as follows. Three players left Forward Gaming's roster, most likely demolishing their chance of reaching TI9. Universe is searching for a new team, SVG retired, and Resolut1n is taking a break of indeterminate length. Expect the new Forward to drop in the rankings. A newly resurgent Mineski, who finally achieved something noteworthy, is losing supports Febby and Pieliedie for Filipino duo Bimbo and ninjaboogie. Last but not least, is the disbandment of Eternal Envy's newly created team Flying Penguins. Without any insight, this seems surprising. Within a month of forming they almost qualified for the Major, earned a 3rd/4th place finish at the Minor, and ranked 19th on my system. Such quick success seems worthy of further experimentation, but EE has already indicated he is searching for a new team.

The last thoughts are about the structure of the Major/Minor system. There will never be a perfect system, but there are still flaws. They could be corrected.

For the upcoming Major, the organizer is forced to allocate 2 spots for each of the six regions (NA, SA, EU, CIS, China, SEA), and allowed to divvy out three more. Instead of trying to decide which region is most worthy (China, EU, NA), they should award automatic spots to the top three finalists of the Dreamleague Major; Vici, Virtus Pro, and Fnatic.

The more significant issue is the mandated 2 spots. After three Major/Minors, no South American Team has achieved better than a 9th-12th place finish at a Major (and none have won a Minor). Meanwhile, EU has one 1st, one 2nd, and two 4ths , CIS has one 1st, and two 2nd, China has a 1st and 4th, NA owns two 3rd, and SEA is on the board with a 3rd.

In spite of their continual failure, the South American team, Chaos, is 13th in Dota Pro Circuit Points. The 12 teams with the most DPC will be automatically invited to The International 9. Yet, there are at least three teams my system believes are superior to Chaos. (Original Roster) Forward Gaming is only 16th in DPC, while Gambit is 15th, and Aster is 19th. Yet they have fewer points because their regions are tougher. Particularly representative, is the fact that the South American teams with the 2nd most DPC is Thunder Predator, ranking 18th in DPC, but around 50th (!) on my system. They have no shot at making it on DPC, but the fact that they are also have more points than Aster is absurd. If one looks at my rankings, they can also see the 2nd South American team at the Major was Infamous, ranking 31st. They were able to attend, while other teams like Gambit, Aster, OG, Flying Penguins, and Royal NGU had to either attend the Minor, or no event at all. Of course, Infamous is now 21st in DPC, near or above all the teams mentioned.

I have nothing against South America, but the results indicate the unfairness of awarding them a second spot at each Major while better teams from more difficult regions languish.

The Regional Qualifiers for the upcoming Major MDL Disneyland® Paris Major begins tomorrow. Enjoy the competition.

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