The first 2018/2019
Dota Pro Circuit (DPC) Major and Minor pair has been
completed, and some thoughts follow.
The Minor is pointless, except as a 2nd
attempt to qualify for the Major (though the cash prize isn't bad).
The winner of the Minor receives slightly more DPC points than the
13th-16th Major finalists, and less than the
9th-12th place, and the Minor winner only
receives the higher point total. Tigers won the DreamLeague
Season 10 Minor and was awarded 120 DPC points. They placed
13-16th at the Kuala
Lumpur Major and earned another 75 points. Except they only
receive the 120 to their account.
Only the top 3 finishers in the Minor
earn more points than the bottom 4 finishers in the Major. Valve has
planned
five Majors worth 75,000 points, and five Minors worth 2,500. No
that is not a typo, Majors are worth thirty times the value of a
Minor. The only benefit to the Minor, is the top team earns more
than ten times as much cash as the lowest place in the Major,
The controversy. The Major was in
Malaysia which does not recognize Israel, and therefore does not
accept passports from Israel. 33
of Ninjas in Pajamas is from Israel, and wasn't allowed to attend, so
Ninjas had to replace him. According to Valve's 2018/2019
Dota Pro Circuit rules, replacing a player comes with a 40%
penalty on DPC points earned in the tournament. They wisely voided
this rule in this particular situation, as it was an
impossibility for 33 to attend, and he was not responsible, with no
way to rectify the problem.
Ninjas convinced Team Liquid's
offlaner, Mind
Control to play for them. Liquid had failed to secure a spot
in the Major Qualifier. While allowing Ninjas to switch their
offlaner with no penalty makes sense, there's something wrong about
allowing a player signed to a team, substitute for another. Mind
Control is a better player, if one looks at past and recent
successes. A team should have to use a true substitute for a stand
in, some one not signed with another team.
I already wrote how the Group
Stage format is atrocious, and ppd
agrees with me! There was only one surprise, Forward Gaming
losing to The Alliance. Then there was the Main Event. Top teams
prior to the tournament (Secret, VP, LGD) did well initially. EG was
upset by Ninjas in Pajamas, but beat LGD and then won rematch.
My model predicted 27 of the 42
match-ups (both Group Stage and Main Event) correctly, and should do
better at the next event as teams differentiate themselves from each
other, and the model has more data.
How did the performance effect each
team's ranking in my model?
Ninjas in Pajamas demonstrated the best
improvement. Mind Control's substitution for 33 might have been part
of their success because he might be a better player than 33, or
maybe Ninjas would have performed better with 33 because he has
played more with the squad. Ppd
addressed this issue well, saying he doesn't know how it
affected them, and I agree. We'll see, going forward, if they can
earn another fourth place finish, or do even better.
Virtus Pro proved they could beat Team
Secret when it mattered, winning the Major.
Secret and Evil Geniuses delivered
strong performances for second and third place respectively.
And finally, Alliance's narrow
victories over Pain X and Forward Gaming in the Group Stage don't
make them the best team ever, but earned them a spot in the upper
bracket, where they lost 2-0 to LGD and then 2-0 to TNC Predator.
For a team so low in the rankings, even this is a minor victory when
trying to improve one's power ranking.
Then there are the teams which didn't
see improvement or decay. LGD (who won their group) could have done
better in the Main Event, but losing to Secret and EG are not
upsetting. J.Storm, Tigers, and Aster suffered quick losses, but
this wasn't surprising. TNC and Fnatic performed to expectations
with middling results.
At the bottom are the teams who failed
to perform to their strength.
Forward and Pain lost to upstarts
Alliance and Ninjas in the Group Stage, where Pain didn't survive its
best of one with TNC.
Vici Gaming at least earned a spot in
the upper bracket before losing to Secret. That Vici beat Pain X was
expected, but losing to TNC was surprising.
And Pain X only won two of the eight
games they played.
My final power rankings for the top 20
teams. I am only including teams who have qualified for a Minor or
Major Event (and OG).
Top Tier:
Team Secret
Virtus Pro
OG
LGD
Evil Geniuses
Upper Middle Tier:
Vici Gaming
Team Liquid
Fnatic
Ninjas in Pajamas
Bottom Middle Tier:
Forward Gaming
TNC Predator
Aster
Pain Gaming
Bottom Tier:
Tigers
Complexity
Royal NGU
The Alliance
Gambit
J. Storm
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