Second, if you've been following The Presidential Events of Awkward Mixture for the last two and a half years, you'll know that I'm ecstatic to see Trump leave the White House.
But, third, if you've been reading Awkward Mixture you'll also know I consider Biden an extreme disappointment based on past performance and proposed policies.
Let's start with the good. In spite of the President's ongoing intransigence he lost the election, and will no longer be the President starting January 20th, 2021. Though the President pretends otherwise, this election won't be in the top 5 for narrowest outcome. I've already lived through two closer elections; 2000 and 2004. In the latter election, the incumbent, George W. Bush defeated John Kerry by 62 million to 59 million votes. Currently Biden is beating Trump 77 million to 72 million votes. Bush won 286 votes in the electoral college, while Biden will probably secure 306, leaving Trump with 232 (to Kerry's 251). Biden will have 2 more electoral votes than Trump when he “won the Electoral College in a landslide...”
It doesn't take a conspiracy theory to understand why Trump lost. He lost the popular vote by nearly three million in 2016, and barely won Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin. It isn't difficult to see that a few thousand independent voters where sick of his bombastic twitter abuse, or upset by his failure at managing the coronavirus pandemic.
Diving deeper into the data on specific states reveals that 2020 wasn't different from 2004 or 2016. The states that Bush won narrowly in 2004 were New Mexico which he won by 5,900 votes or .67% of the total, Iowa (10,000 - .79%), Nevada (21,000 – 2%), and Ohio (118,000 – 2.11%). In 2016 Trump won Michigan by 10,000 or .23%, Pennsylvania (44,000 - .72%), Wisconsin (22,000 - .77%), and Florida (112,000 – 1.2%). Both Kerry and Clinton conceded the day following the election. It has been more than a week since the election. Instead of conceding, the President and his administration are screaming their scam to cloud the legitimate result.
This year Biden won Georgia by 14,000 votes, or .29% and Arizona by 13,000 (.39%). Both elections was overseen by Republicans and the latter is beginning a recount. If one is uncertain about these two states, because the AP hasn't called them, Biden still wins the election. Biden flipped Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin back to the Democrats. As of 11/11/2020, Biden won Michigan by 150,000 votes (140,000 more than Trump's 2016 victory). Biden's victories in Pennsylvania (50,000) and Wisconsin (20,000) are remarkably similar to Trump's 2016 margins. No one doubts that there were close states in 2020, as there were in 2016, 2004, and many previous elections, but no experts expect Trump to claw back a victory. He doesn't need a mistake in just one state. Trump needs vote counts to be substantially wrong in at least three states to flip the election.
Enough Trump for now.
He had many accomplices. Not the voters, but the powerful people that backed the President through the Access Hollywood Tape, the numerous campaign associates convicted of crimes, the impeachment, the racist attacks against minorities, and the nasty behavior directed against everyone from children to veterans. His enablers confirmed a Supreme Court Justice nominated by a President who repeatedly disproved of the peaceful transfer of power. A few have tentatively explained how they were wrong, but numerous officials are still supporting the President's dangerous attempt to deny his loss. Society shouldn't reward unqualified Trump loyalists with punditry jobs, or professorships at universities. But elite society rewarded Rahm Emanuel, Sean Spicer, David Frum, and Chris Christie with cushy jobs as talking heads. While Biden shouldn't personally pursue prosecutions against the President and associates, neither should he stand in the way. But Obama forgave the war crimes of President George W. Bush. He overlooked the financial crimes of the powerful. When he didn't pursue any charges these criminals were invited back into the upper echelons of polite society. Don't expect anything different in 2021.
Trump lost, but the question remains; did Mitch McConnell win? Did McConnell squeeze everything he wanted out of Donald Trump and escape the blame? If Democrats can't tie the larger Republican party to Trump then they are in serious trouble. The results in the House and Senate reflect the failure of the Democratic establishment to connect the two. If all that the voters disliked about Trump was his personal behavior, Biden's victory is very tenuous.
If Trump loses his grasp on the Republican party because of his loss, Democrats shouldn't be surprised if people like Scaramucci, Kasich, Joe Walsh, the Lincoln Project people, and et al. eagerly re-embrace the Republican party. For now they are trying to ingratiate themselves into the Democratic establishment. Kasich, is telling Joe Biden has, “to listen to what the other half of country has to say.” Sure listen, but Kasich doesn't mean listen, he means do what the minority says. No. Kasich did not carry Ohio for Biden. More Republicans (by party identification) voted for Trump in 2020 than in 2016, despite grifters of the Never Trump moment (who skimmed millions in dollars from centrist donors). Trump claimed a mandate in 2016 when he won, despite losing the popular vote, and pursued partisan policies detrimental to the country. Biden may not have an overwhelming mandate, but he shouldn't pass the opposing party's policies.
Kasich concluded a CNN interview saying, “The best thing that's happened to Joe Biden is the fact that the United States Senate is either going to be Republican or very close … And frankly the Democrats have to make it clear to the far left that they almost cost them this election.”
Kasich revealed the secret (and yet) obvious plan of the Never Trumpers. Dump Trump, but hold onto the Republican Senate. Yet he is sorta of correct; this is what Joe Biden campaigned on. It didn't seem as if Biden was concerned with winning the Senate decisively. According to Joe his strength was that he could reach across the aisle, craft bipartisan bills, and bring Republicans and Democrats together. He got what he wished for, but will he live to regret it? He campaigned as a centrist, repeatedly denigrating the causes of the young left voters who (along with other factions of the Democratic Party) pushed him to victory.
Joe Biden will not be the most progressive President since FDR. This was an obvious lie from the beginning, but Biden's failure to take the Senate cements it as fact. It's unlikely he will even be as progressive as Barack Obama, who was a left leaning centrist in deed, if not in speech.
Biden didn't campaign on policy. His website lists policies, but the core policy of his campaign was to oust Trump. He criticized Trump for his divisive speeches and for his incompetent handling of the coronavirus. Biden refused to campaign on any policy other than being like Obama. Biden's policies were a reactionary rejection of the progressive candidates in the Democratic primary. Aside from Biden the Democratic party didn't fare well. Though they still hold the House, they lost seats, and appear unlikely to recapture the Senate. Though Joe won Maine handily, Susan Collins held her seat. Democrats control 48 Senate seats. Two seats, both in Georgia remain outstanding. Their occupants will be decided in runoff elections in early January. If Joe Biden doesn't win these he will be the first incoming President in 32 years to not win the Senate for his Party. Clinton, G.W. Bush, Obama, and Trump all won the Senate when they became President. Democratic voters were repeatedly told by their leaders that Joe was the only one who could win the Senate.
Immediately the question arises, who is at fault? Was it the centrists who refused to endorse popular positions like Medicare for All, the Green New Deal, or tax increases on the wealthy? Or maybe it was the progressives, whose slogans were turned against moderates. Preliminary data suggests moderate Democratic candidates did worse than their progressive counterparts in similar situations. This may sound counter intuitive to moderate voters, but it seems like people don't switch their party. Between a moderate Republican and a moderate Democrat there are too many differences to persuade voters to switch sides, but there is too many similarities to bring out voters who want a change in direction.
In Florida, 60% of voters approved a minimum wage increase (from $8.50 an hour to $15), but while progressive activists promoted the increase, Democratic Representatives refused to rally behind it. Joe Biden may list raising the minimum wage to $15 on his policy page, but he only mentioned the topic briefly when Trump criticized it at a debate. Even though a Democratic policy won overwhelmingly in Florida, Biden and two Democratic Representatives lost their races because they refused to endorse it with their full support.
By aiming too low, Joe Biden missed the mark to improve the United States. He may have succeeded in his aim of stabilizing the country like it was 2012, but Obama was followed by Trump. The 2020 election demonstrates how close the United States is to repeating the abominable experiment of 2016. Imagine if the Republicans hold the Senate by 51 to 49 after the two runoff elections in Georgia. Joe Biden thinks he can shake some hands and pass his policies. Obama thought so too, but Mitch McConnell made that impossible.
Under McConnell and an rancorously partisan atmosphere, it's not impossible to imagine a Republican Senate refusing to confirm Biden's Supreme Court Nominees or Cabinet picks. It's also not impossible to imagine Joe Biden choosing Republicans for his Cabinet and centrist Judges for the Supreme Court.
In either case the dysfunction may be worse than 2016 or 2020. The public lays the state of the country at the feet of the President, not the Senate. With no policy successes, or only centrist non-solutions, the Democrat running for President in 2024 will be unable to win independents or progressive voters. There won't be any Donald Trump phantoms to scare voters into voting for Biden again.
Or will there?
Trump is vowing to run again in 2024. This is prematurely speculative. Even if Trump did run again, one would still expect him to lose the popular vote. But if he ran again against an unsuccessful and unpopular Democratic candidate (Biden or other) he could recapture enough independents to win the electoral college. If not Trump, Republicans could pick a candidate similar in intention. A savvier candidate, with Trump's approval, could decimate a disappointing Democratic administration.
The next four years, and the 2024 election could be a lead up to something much worse.
The inability of Biden to recapture the Senate translates into an inability to pass legislation to solve the problems of his constituents; economic inequality, racial inequality, and global warming. The desperation increases daily, and yet Biden may be glad he can't do it. His heart never seemed into the movement of improvement. On global warming organizations like Greenpeace and the Sunrise Movement marked his initial plans with poor grades. His grade improved with new policies, but he recently said he wouldn't take the basic steps of banning fracking
I love seeing Trump lose. It is
fabulous and fantastic, but I am greatly discouraged by Joe Biden
winning. I fear the next decade may make the past seem like the Era
of Good Feelings in comparison.
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