With Biden as the Presumptive Democratic Nominee, Both Parties have Declared a Generational War Against the Young

File:Joe Biden (48554137807).jpg
Polling, and a reasonable delegate lead, suggest that Joe Biden will be the 2020 Democratic candidate against President Donald Trump, barring some last minute realignment. In offering candidates disliked by younger generations the two parties are leaving Gen-Xers, Millennials, and Gen-Zers without a plausible choice. This statement is not in doubt. A 2019 Gallup poll indicated Trump had a 28% favorability among the 18-29 crowd, and a 39% approval rating for those aged 30-49. In contrast, his support among those 50 and older was nearly ten points higher at 47%. Biden isn't doing any better in his one on one against Bernie Sanders in the primary.

Exit polling in the 2020 Democratic primary (conducted by the New York Times) indicates that those under forty favor Bernie, with a massive difference in voters under thirty. Looking at the larger states which have already voted in the Democratic primary (plus my home state), the numbers are dire for Biden.

In Florida, which Biden won 62% to 23%, Bernie saw massive support from 18 – 29 year olds, and won 30 – 39 and non-white 18-29 voters.
Age
Vote (Bernie vs Biden)
18-24
57% – 33%
25-29
49% – 38%
30-39
45% – 41%
Non-white 18-29
46% – 42%

In Illinois, which Biden won 59% to 36%, Sanders destroyed Biden in voters under 29 and performed very well among non-white voters from 18 – 44.
Age
Vote (Bernie vs Biden)
18-24
74% - 24%
25-29
60% – 30%
30-39
54% – 40%
Non-white 18-29
65% – 32%
Non-white 18-44
57% – 39%
In Texas, Bernie at least as well as his 2016 run when he garnered 64% to 34% of the 18 – 29 vote, while beating Biden among young African American voters. Unfortunatly, while the New York Times exit polls regularly included data about African American voters over forty, it rarely included information about the younger generations.

Age
Vote (Bernie vs Biden)
18-24
70% – 13%
25-29
59% – 10%
30-39
52% – 17%
African American 18-29
45% – 30%

Bernie also won Michigan, California, and Massachusetts handily among the younger generations. In Michigan Sanders won 18 – 24 year olds by sixty points, and the 30-39 cohort 57% to 38%. In California he beat the divided field (Biden, Warren, and Bloomberg) with 68% of the 18-24 crowd, 57% of the 30-39 group, and even won a plurality of 40-49 voters with 40% (Bloomberg came in second with 17%). In Massachusetts, Elizabeth Warren's home state, Bernie did best in the 18 – 29 category, winning 51% against Biden and Warren who both saw 21% support.

Other states like NC, SC, and VA didn't include exit polls by age, while AL included limited polling, where Sanders won those aged 18-29 by 45% to 32%, and Washington State, where he won 18-44 year olds, 59% to 16%. The young, whose future will be determined by policies written by voters over fifty, voted overwhelmingly for Bernie Sanders.

The younger generation saw their parents duped into the US invasion of Iraq, saw them bail out the greed of Wall Street while the average American suffered through the Great Recession, and saw older voters repeatedly reject the evidence of global warming along with any policies which might have curbed it. Those under forty prioritize different policies than their Baby Boomer parents. The older folks didn't mind sending the young to die in the endless War on Terror (2001 to present), didn't care about selling their online privacy to government spy agencies and massive corporations, and won't have to deal with the changes in climate that that may devastate the planet for their children and grandchildren. While they claim their policies were (and are) designed to create a better world, they've deprived the younger generations of peace, economic advancement, and a healthy environment, to defend the benefits they've hoarded for themselves.

Millenials and Gen-Zers need a Green New Deal to avert devastating heat and droughts, want debt relief because the public stopped the funding of state universities, desire racial justice which has languished since the 1960s, and demand an end to America's foreign wars which bred hatred and drained public wealth to forge death.

Joe Biden's record on issues which the young favor is, at best, mixed. It includes many mediocre votes along with some truly disastrous decisions. For those with a faulty memory, his worst choices litter his Wikipedia page. Biden opposed desegregating buses, plagiarized speeches, dismissed Anita Hill's charges of sexual harassment against Clarence Thomas, voted for the 2003 invasion of Iraq, supported capital punishment, voted to increase prison sentences (and fund the war on drugs), advocated for civil asset forfeiture, voted for the Patriot Act, voted for a wall along the southern border, and voted for DOMA. Under the Obama administration they expanded drone strikes, deported more immigrants than George W. Bush, and enabled the NSA eliminate personal privacy. While Biden recently began rejecting his past positions to prepare himself for his 2020 presidential run, young voters who have felt the pain of his policies, remain wary of his commitment to progressive plans.

While the country is currently undergoing a debilitating pandemic, younger voters are seeing their future as relates to climate change. The older generations won't do anything until its upon us, and with global warming, it will be too late. Biden has released multiple plans during the 2019-2020 Democratic primary. Greenpeace originally awarded Biden a D- for his plans in May, while Sanders earned a B+. Since then, Greenpeace upgraded Biden to a C-, and Sanders to an A. Other environmental leaders gave Biden similarly poor grades. The Sunrise Movement awarded him an F to Sanders' A-, while 350.org graded Biden as committed to only one of the four policies needed to prevent climate devastation (Bernie went four for four). With these numbers, young voters are not going to believe that Biden is interested in protecting their future.

Joe Biden needs young voters, but he can't expect them to turnout for him based on his past votes or his current policies. It seems likely he plans to run against Trump, rather than campaign on his policies. He's hoping an election based on attacking Trump will rally the youth to his side. Biden's campaign message is, “Yes, you dislike me, but the other guy is worse.” Older voter constantly proclaim that young people don't to turn out to vote, and they're about to find out how true that is. This plan of Biden's seems weak, because the young are peculiarly flexible on voting. They are unlikely to turn out in an election if given two choices they dislike, but will reliably vote for a candidate they support. If Biden is searching for a hook to draw in Millennials, he better not replicate Clinton's VP pick with a bland centrist, like Klobuchar.

But maybe Biden doesn't need Gen-Zers to vote for him! 

The data doesn't support this conclusion. While Democrats have won the popular vote in four of the last five Presidential elections, they've only won two of them.   Both of them featured a large youth vote in favor of the Democratic candidate.  Hillary Clinton may have won the popular vote, but she lost a significant percentage of youth voters. She won 55% to Trump's 37%, but that's a five point slide from Obama's 2012 win, where he won 60% to Romney's 37%. Observant readers will notice the percentage of youth who backed Romney and Trump remained the same, but the Democrat lost voters. They flocked to Gary Johnson and Jill Stein in protest of a bipartisan system which voted for the War on Terror, kneecapped the middle class, and didn't seriously address climate change. The votes of the Libertarian Party or the Green party would have been enough to secure the election for Hillary Clinton, but she couldn't convince these voters she shared their interests.

Obama did even better with the youth vote in his historical 2008 campaign, when the United States saw the largest percentage of youth turn out to vote in over fifty years. And he convinced the young to vote for him 66% against only 31% to McCain. The losses of 2004 saw Kerry with a measly 54%, and 2000 with Gore's abominable 48% and the lowest youth vote in twenty years. The point of these last two decades is to demonstrate that the Democratic party is the party of the young, in that they can only win when the youth vote is high, and they side with Democrats by overwhelming margins. The question is, can Democrats do that?

If you're a Democrat about to say, the young didn't care enough to turn out to secure the primary for Bernie, just wait until they don't turn out in the necessary numbers to help Biden win the general election. Don't go blaming them then for losing the election, when you spent the primary shaming them.

Instead of shaming the young for not voting, thereby abandoning their votes, the Democratic party needs to commit to make it easier for young people to vote. Automatic voter registration. More polling locations for students. Election Day as a national holiday. Republicans have enacted laws to make it more difficult to vote. Democrats need to remove laws requiring photo Ids, which effect poor and minority voters (especially laws which prohibit college ids). The young have experienced additional disenfranchisement as corporations and Republicans tear down campaign finance laws, allowing the wealthy to buy politicians and elections. Millennials want a president who will limit how much the millionaires and billionaires can spend on elections.

Republicans can afford to ignore the youth vote, but as a key constituency, the Democratic candidate is doomed without them. The past five presidential elections offer support for this theory. The question is, can Biden bring them aboard? He is running out of time, and if he doesn't engage their interest, then don't be surprised if young voters reject both the Democratic and Republican nominee. The young have already been abandoned by both parties.

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