With Biden as the Presumptive Democratic Nominee, Both Parties have Declared a Generational War Against the Young
Polling, and a
reasonable delegate lead, suggest that Joe Biden will be the 2020
Democratic candidate against President Donald Trump, barring some
last minute realignment. In offering candidates disliked by younger
generations the two parties are leaving Gen-Xers, Millennials, and
Gen-Zers without a plausible choice. This statement is not in doubt.
A 2019
Gallup poll indicated Trump had a 28% favorability among the
18-29 crowd, and a 39% approval rating for those aged 30-49. In
contrast, his support among those 50 and older was nearly ten points
higher at 47%. Biden isn't doing any better in his one on one
against Bernie Sanders in the primary.
Exit polling in the 2020
Democratic primary (conducted by the New York Times) indicates that
those under forty favor Bernie, with a massive difference in voters
under thirty. Looking at the larger states which have already voted
in the Democratic primary (plus my home state), the numbers are dire
for Biden.
In Florida, which Biden
won 62% to 23%, Bernie saw massive support from 18 – 29 year olds,
and won 30 – 39 and non-white 18-29 voters.
Age
|
Vote (Bernie vs Biden)
|
18-24
|
57% – 33%
|
25-29
|
49% – 38%
|
30-39
|
45% – 41%
|
Non-white 18-29
|
46% – 42%
|
In Illinois, which Biden
won 59% to 36%, Sanders destroyed Biden in voters under 29 and
performed very well among non-white voters from 18 – 44.
Age
|
Vote (Bernie vs Biden)
|
18-24
|
74% - 24%
|
25-29
|
60% – 30%
|
30-39
|
54% – 40%
|
Non-white 18-29
|
65% – 32%
|
Non-white 18-44
|
57% – 39%
|
In Texas, Bernie at least
as well as his 2016 run when he garnered 64% to 34% of the 18 – 29
vote, while beating Biden among young African American voters.
Unfortunatly, while the New York Times exit polls regularly included
data about African American voters over forty, it rarely included
information about the younger generations.
Age
|
Vote (Bernie vs Biden)
|
18-24
|
70% – 13%
|
25-29
|
59% – 10%
|
30-39
|
52% – 17%
|
African American 18-29
|
45% – 30%
|
Bernie also won Michigan,
California, and Massachusetts handily among the younger generations.
In Michigan Sanders won 18 – 24 year olds by sixty points, and the
30-39 cohort 57% to 38%. In California he beat the divided field
(Biden, Warren, and Bloomberg) with 68% of the 18-24 crowd, 57% of
the 30-39 group, and even won a plurality of 40-49 voters with 40%
(Bloomberg came in second with 17%). In Massachusetts, Elizabeth
Warren's home state, Bernie did best in the 18 – 29 category,
winning 51% against Biden and Warren who both saw 21% support.
Other states like NC, SC,
and VA didn't include exit polls by age, while AL included limited
polling, where Sanders won those aged 18-29 by 45% to 32%, and
Washington State, where he won 18-44 year olds, 59% to 16%. The
young, whose future will be determined by policies written by voters
over fifty, voted overwhelmingly for Bernie Sanders.
The younger generation saw
their parents duped into the US invasion of Iraq, saw them bail out
the greed of Wall Street while the average American suffered through
the Great Recession, and saw older voters repeatedly reject the
evidence of global warming along with any policies which might have
curbed it. Those under forty prioritize different policies than
their Baby Boomer parents. The older folks didn't mind sending the
young to die in the endless War on Terror (2001 to present), didn't
care about selling their online privacy to government spy agencies
and massive corporations, and won't have to deal with the changes in
climate that that may devastate the planet for their children and
grandchildren. While they claim their policies were (and are)
designed to create a better world, they've deprived the younger
generations of peace, economic advancement, and a healthy
environment, to defend the benefits they've hoarded for themselves.
Millenials and Gen-Zers
need a Green New Deal to avert devastating heat and droughts, want
debt relief because the public stopped the funding of state
universities, desire racial justice which has languished since the
1960s, and demand an end to America's foreign wars which bred hatred
and drained public wealth to forge death.
Joe Biden's record on
issues which the young favor is, at best, mixed. It includes many
mediocre votes along with some truly disastrous decisions. For those
with a faulty memory, his worst choices litter his Wikipedia page.
Biden opposed desegregating buses, plagiarized speeches, dismissed
Anita Hill's charges of sexual harassment against Clarence Thomas,
voted for the 2003 invasion of Iraq, supported capital punishment,
voted to increase prison sentences (and fund the war on drugs),
advocated for civil asset forfeiture, voted for the Patriot Act,
voted for a wall along the southern border, and voted for DOMA.
Under the Obama administration they expanded drone strikes, deported
more immigrants than George W. Bush, and enabled the NSA eliminate
personal privacy. While Biden recently began rejecting his past
positions to prepare himself for his 2020 presidential run, young
voters who have felt the pain of his policies, remain wary of his
commitment to progressive plans.
While the country is
currently undergoing a debilitating pandemic, younger voters are
seeing their future as relates to climate change. The older
generations won't do anything until its upon us, and with global
warming, it will be too late. Biden has released multiple plans
during the 2019-2020 Democratic primary. Greenpeace originally
awarded Biden a D- for his plans in May, while Sanders earned a B+.
Since then, Greenpeace
upgraded Biden to a C-, and Sanders to an A. Other environmental
leaders gave Biden similarly poor grades. The
Sunrise Movement awarded him an F to Sanders' A-, while 350.org
graded Biden as committed to only one of the four policies needed to
prevent climate devastation (Bernie went four for four). With these
numbers, young voters are not going to believe that Biden is
interested in protecting their future.
Joe Biden needs young
voters, but he can't expect them to turnout for him based on his past
votes or his current policies. It seems likely he plans to run
against Trump, rather than campaign on his policies. He's hoping an
election based on attacking Trump will rally the youth to his side.
Biden's campaign message is, “Yes, you dislike me, but the other
guy is worse.” Older voter constantly proclaim that young people
don't to turn out to vote, and they're about to find out how true
that is. This plan of Biden's seems weak, because the young are
peculiarly flexible on voting. They are unlikely to turn out in an
election if given two choices they dislike, but will reliably vote
for a candidate they support. If Biden is searching for a hook to
draw in Millennials, he better not replicate Clinton's VP pick with a
bland centrist, like Klobuchar.
But maybe Biden doesn't
need Gen-Zers to vote for him!
The data doesn't support this
conclusion. While Democrats have won the popular vote in four of the
last five Presidential elections, they've only won two of them. Both of them featured a large youth vote in favor of the Democratic candidate.
Hillary Clinton may have won the popular vote, but she lost a
significant percentage of youth voters. She won 55% to Trump's 37%,
but that's a five point slide from Obama's 2012 win, where he won 60%
to Romney's 37%. Observant readers will notice the percentage of
youth who backed Romney and Trump remained the same, but the Democrat
lost voters. They flocked to Gary Johnson and Jill Stein in protest
of a bipartisan system which voted for the War on Terror, kneecapped
the middle class, and didn't seriously address climate change. The
votes of the Libertarian Party or the Green party would have been
enough to secure the election for Hillary Clinton, but she couldn't
convince these voters she shared their interests.
Obama did even better with
the youth vote in his historical 2008 campaign, when the United
States saw the largest percentage of youth turn out to vote in over
fifty years. And he convinced the young to vote for him 66% against
only 31% to McCain. The losses of 2004 saw Kerry with a measly 54%,
and 2000 with Gore's abominable 48% and the lowest youth vote in
twenty years. The point of these last two decades is to demonstrate
that the Democratic party is the party of the young, in that they can
only win when the youth vote is high, and they side with Democrats by
overwhelming margins. The question is, can Democrats do that?
If you're a Democrat about
to say, the young didn't care enough to turn out to secure the
primary for Bernie, just wait until they don't turn out in the
necessary numbers to help Biden win the general election. Don't go
blaming them then for losing the election, when you spent the primary
shaming them.
Instead of shaming the
young for not voting, thereby abandoning their votes, the Democratic
party needs to commit to make it easier for young people to vote.
Automatic voter registration. More polling locations for students.
Election Day as a national holiday. Republicans have enacted laws
to make it more difficult to vote. Democrats need to remove laws
requiring photo Ids, which effect poor and minority voters
(especially laws which prohibit college ids). The young have
experienced additional disenfranchisement as corporations and
Republicans tear down campaign finance laws, allowing the wealthy to
buy politicians and elections. Millennials want a president who will
limit how much the millionaires and billionaires can spend on
elections.
Republicans can afford to
ignore the youth vote, but as a key constituency, the Democratic
candidate is doomed without them. The past five presidential
elections offer support for this theory. The question is, can Biden
bring them aboard? He is running out of time, and if he doesn't
engage their interest, then don't be surprised if young voters reject
both the Democratic and Republican nominee. The young have already
been abandoned by both parties.
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