Dota 2: The International 2019, After The Groups

Awkward Mixture will return to its review of Tyranny, but the next two weeks will be given over to Dota's The International 2019.

The group stage is over, and it narrowed the top contenders, while introducing a few new teams as well.

The number one team through the 2018/2019 season, Team Secret, remained strong, but other teams demonstrated similar skill. Vici Gaming, who performed well in the second half of the DPC season stumbled a bit, but remain a top contender, while LGD and OG claimed the top spots in Group A and B respectively over their more well regarded counterparts.

Success of some teams, means disappointment for others. Team Liquid, who replaced Matumbaman for W33ha, failed to replicate the brilliance they displayed at the Epicenter Major. Their fall came partly at the surprising success of the newly renamed Newbee (formerly Forward Gaming). They rose from a middle of the pack team, to a still distant, but possible chance of winning the Aegis.

The most surprising event of the International was the complete catastrophe of ppd's Ninjas in Pyjamas. Throughout the year they'd demonstrated their ability to perform at a phenomenal level one day, and terribly the next. Over four days they won only three of their sixteen games. In Group B there were plenty of teams that were more likely to finish at the bottom of the group like NAVI, RNG, and Infamous. NiP should have won games against these three teams, but only one of their three victories came from their two game match-up against Infamous, and none from NAVI or RNG.

After Epicenter, I wrote a Power Ranking. Here is the new Ranking of the eighteen TI9 teams, and where they stand after the group stage.

Top Tier:
  1. Secret +0
  2. LGD +3
  3. Vici Gaming -1
  4. OG +3
Upper Middle Tier:
  1. Virtus Pro -1
  2. Evil Geniuses 0
  3. Liquid -4
Lower Middle Tier:
  1. Newbee +4
  2. TNC +1
  3. Alliance -2
  4. Fnatic -2
Lower Tier:
  1. NAVI +2
  2. Mineski +2
  3. RNG -1
  4. Ninjas -4
  5. Infamous +1
Bottom Tier:
  1. Keen Gaming -1
  2. Chaos 0
Ninja's losses were surprising, but they still remain better than two of the remaining teams.

Of the remaining teams, only seven seem likely to raise the Aegis. They have either demonstrated brilliance during the season, or in the group stage. Any of the teams in the Lower Middle Tier couple win, but aside from Fnatic's brief power spike in the middle of the DPC season, they have only shown proficiency this year.

A rough method of determining their future performance based on their power ranking looks like this:
But there is also a more specific method. The International 2019 Battle Pass includes a Bracket, where players, given the starting playoff bracket, predict the outcome of the tournament to its conclusion.
https://steamuserimages-a.akamaihd.net/ugc/794243376826850642/6EBD45ED1805746583454FCE133C48E7CB44533D/
Constructed with the Power Rankings (except in limited circumstances), the ultimate outcome, is of course a Secret victory over LGD.  In only two match-ups did a pick a slightly weaker Power Ranking team.  In the Lower Bracket Round 1, Keen Gaming (17) will beat Infamous (16).  South America failed the entire year to demonstrate strength, so Infamous arrived through the Regional Qualifier, while Keen Gaming secured a spot as a top 12 team with the Dota Pro Circuit.  In the end how a team earned their spot means nothing, but it showed persistent skill throughout the year.  

Also, in the Lower Bracket Round 5, OG (4), will sneak the series from Vici Gaming (3).  Until the group stage it would have been an easy choice.  Vici performed incredibly well for the second half of the year, while OG stumbled until their star carry, Ana, returned in mid-March.  Even with their Australian superstar, they only placed 5th and 7th at the final two Majors.  But in the TI9 Group Stage they surged while Vici slumped.

There isn't any more to say, the games have already begun.  A wrap up of The International 2019 follows next Monday.

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