The 2017/2018 Dota season is half over,
about one third of the pro circuit points have been awarded, and it's
time to consider where the teams and there players find themselves.
For the third year in a row Valve has
altered the professional scene, so a quick history lesson seems
appropriate. Prior to TI5, Valve oversaw no tournaments, all of
which were operated by outside companies. But two years ago, Valve
decided to host three Major events, each including a three million
dollar prize pool, with the purpose of stabilizing the professional
Defense of the Ancients scene. The next year, following complaints
about Valve's events crowding out the competition, they hosted two
instead. This year, in a major adjustment for the 2017/2018 season,
Valve will not host any events aside from the International.
Instead, the implemented a system to support outside organizers, by
doubling the prize pool of events which fulfill certain Valve
requirements. At the same time, Valve finally revealed their secret
process to determine the teams invited directly to the Intentional.
Valve sponsored events will distribute points to the top 4 teams at
each event based on the prize pool, with the top eight teams
receiving a direct invitation to TI8 in August.
So, instead of Valve Majors with a
three million prize pool each, the new Valve sponsored events
are Majors, with a minimum prize pool of one million, and Minors
worth a minimum of three hundred thousand. There are currently nine
Majors and fourteen Minors planned. Majors are worth 1.5 points for
every thousand dollars, while Minors are worth 1 point for every
thousand. But only the top four teams earn points, with 1st
earning 50%, 2nd, 30%, and 3rd and 4th
both earning 10% (because most Dota tournaments don't differentiate
between 3rd and 4th). For example, a three
hundred thousand dollar Minor will award the 1st place
team 150 points, 90 points for 2nd, and 30 to the 3rd
and 4th place teams.
Actually, it's not the teams that earn
the points, but the players. Each player receives the full point
value earned by his team, and retains it even if he transfers to
another team. In the above example, each player on the 1st
player team earns 150 points. After the last event concludes on June
10th, each team's point value will be calculated by adding
the point values of the top three players on each team. While
counting only three players allows a team to make minor alterations
to its squad without losing its spot at TI8, it creates a significant
problem. A poor team with few points can acquire a player who has
earned a points playing for another team. This has already happened
with NAVI getting Lil from Virtus Pro, and Fnatic getting Universe
from Evil Geniuses. Both NAVI and Fnatic, according to their point
total prior to the trade were not in the top eight, but Lil and
Universe, carrying their points, have pushed both teams into
contention. Someone on Reddit, and I've looked but been unable to
located the thread, thought the system could be improved by counting
the middle three players instead of the top three, still offering
teams the flexibility to augment their squad, but preventing a point
value pickup.
Valve included one more rule for events
to be Valve sponsored. Each tournament must include a regional
qualifier for each of the six popular play areas; China, South East
Asia, CIS, Europe, North America, and South America.
As of this moment, sixteen teams have
earned qualifying points for the International 8. While only about a
third of the points have been allocated, some teams are quite close
to the 6,087 points necessary to secure a spot at the International.
1. Secret 4260
2. Liquid 3510
3. Virtus Pro 2700
4. Newbee 1725
5. Navi 1110
6. Vici Gaming 1035
7. Mineski 900
8. Evil Geniuses 885
9. OG 630
10. LGD 472
11. Fnatic 390
12. TNC 270
13. LGD.Forever Young 200
14. Complexity 135
15. Immortals 90
16. Kinguin 90
Based on these numbers, a casual viewer
will make incorrect assumptions. NAVI, which just had to replace two
of its players, is buoyed by Lil from VP, who brought 900 points of
his own, with the next two of Navi earning only 105 apiece. As I
mentioned, Fnatic is also boosted by their acquisition, though not as
much, by Universe's 255. Though the points do tell some truth, that
Secret, Liquid, and VP are truly dominating the competition in the
the currency of Dota, they don't tell the entire story.
For an alternative version of strength,
let's look at my systems predictions (note, this article was drafted
on the 21st, prior to Fnatic's astonishing defeat of
Secret, and has not been adjusted).
Top Tier:
1. Liquid
2. Secret
3. NB
4. Vici
5. VP
Mid Tier:
6. EG
7. OG
8. Mineski
Bottom Tier:
9. LGD.FY
10. TNC
11. Empire
12. LGD
13. Fnatic
14. NAVI
15. Kinguin
16.Complexity
As mentioned above, Liquid and Secret
are dominating, but the other members of the top five can contest
with them. Of the five, Vici is the most recent addition to the
tier, having entered this season as non-existent, and earned three
second place finishes, though they've failed to win a Major or Minor.
Thought Virtus Pro and Newbee have both won a Major and a Minor
respectively, they've experienced recent fluctuations in play, which
could lead to a drop in position if they aren't rectified. VP's
trade with NAVI for Rodger might be their attempt to refit the squad,
and future play will see if it was successful.
EG has been less consistent, releasing
my favorite player, Universe, to reshuffle their roster and acquire
Misery. The incident occurred, because players wanted to switch
their role. Prior to trading Universe, Evil Geniuses included
Arteezy, Sumail, Universe, Cr1t, and Fear, playing Carry, Mid,
Offlane, Roamer, and Support respectively. But, Fear wanted to
return to carry, which he's played well before, and to comply, they
shifted Artezzy to Mid, a position he's played professionally as
well, but Sumail was forced into the offlane, even though he's never
played it, and analysts consider him one of the best mid players.
Time will tell if their new positions will bring them success.
Mineski has also won a Minor, and
performed consistently, but also, consistently fails to win against
the top five teams.
Though the last tier must be termed,
the Bottom, it's not to imply their positions are hopeless. In fact,
Fnatic, after some roster adjustments a three months ago (releasing
Xcalibur to acquire Abed),
and then more recently (releasing Ohaiyo to get Universe) , have
played startlingly well, and I have no difficulty imagining them in
the top 8 by August. LGD.FY and Empire haven't played many
tournaments, and along with LGD have demonstrated successively less
success, so one would expect their downward trajectory to continue.
At the same time, the rejuvenated Fnatic, along with Mineski have
blocked TNC from qualifying for tournaments, though TNC has earned a
spot at the upcoming Bucharest Major. Complexity has played so many
tournaments it's easy to judge them as consistently under-performing,
with only one 4th place finish in seven events.
NAVI was doing well with a new roster
about three months ago, and could have contended for the Mid Tier,
but for one reason or another, recently lost two players, and any
past predictions will have to be discarded until new data is
produced. Since I don't want to ignore the remaining team, Kinguin's
appeared wildly inconsistent, taking series off top five teams, but
then losing to mid and bottom tier teams.
This brings us to a few final thoughts
about the invites.
Aside from the first few events, Majors
are hosting sixteen teams, while Minors involve eight teams. But
qualify as a Major or Minor, and be worth points for the
International, Valve has mandated that an event include six
qualifiers. Though well intentioned, this leads to some odd results.
For instance, over three Majors and
nine Minors, no team from South America has earned higher than than
6th at a Minor, or 13-16th at a Major. Yet,
one team from South America will always attend. Minors offer the
host only two spots to invite teams, while a host of a Major will
have ten spots to dispense as they please,whether in direct invites
or more regional qualifiers for preferred regions.
One can't speak for the tournament
organizers, and how exactly they choose to invite teams. Some may be
preferring teams with the most points, while others prefer teams from
the region the event is hosted in, some might rank recent performance
higher than total point value, and some appear to prefer inviting the
perennial fan favorite NAVI. Finally, some events may feel compelled
to limit the amount of invites to each region.
Of particular note, one strong team is
a perennial loser in the invite system. With the combination of only
ten invites, and the strength of Liquid and Secret, hosts have forced
OG to play through the European Qualifier, even though they have a
37-2
in European Qualifiers this year, and the ninth highest point value
for the season. They are clearly superior to any other European team
aside from Kuroky's and Puppey's but are condemned to endless
qualifier games. Not only are they being put through an effort they
shouldn't have to achieve, the system is blocking other European
teams from playing at events. Which inferior teams have gotten
invites over them recently? NAVI, Complexity, LGD.Forever Young, and
Invictus Gaming (which hasn't played a single Valve level match this
season). In addition to these directly invited teams, South American
teams, like SG-espots, PAIN gaming, and Infamous are depriving
stronger teams of the change to prove themselves. In conclusion,
Majors do not include the best sixteen teams, but an awkward
compromise.
August is still distant, and though
Secret, Liquid, and VP seem like certain invites to TI8, the other
five spots are still anyone one's guess . With six Majors, five
Minors, and two thirds of the points still to be distributed there's
a lot which can occur between now and The International.
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