Dota 2 Majors, Minors, and Standings: February 2018

The 2017/2018 Dota season is half over, about one third of the pro circuit points have been awarded, and it's time to consider where the teams and there players find themselves.

For the third year in a row Valve has altered the professional scene, so a quick history lesson seems appropriate. Prior to TI5, Valve oversaw no tournaments, all of which were operated by outside companies. But two years ago, Valve decided to host three Major events, each including a three million dollar prize pool, with the purpose of stabilizing the professional Defense of the Ancients scene. The next year, following complaints about Valve's events crowding out the competition, they hosted two instead. This year, in a major adjustment for the 2017/2018 season, Valve will not host any events aside from the International. Instead, the implemented a system to support outside organizers, by doubling the prize pool of events which fulfill certain Valve requirements. At the same time, Valve finally revealed their secret process to determine the teams invited directly to the Intentional. Valve sponsored events will distribute points to the top 4 teams at each event based on the prize pool, with the top eight teams receiving a direct invitation to TI8 in August.

So, instead of Valve Majors with a three million prize pool each, the new Valve sponsored events are Majors, with a minimum prize pool of one million, and Minors worth a minimum of three hundred thousand. There are currently nine Majors and fourteen Minors planned. Majors are worth 1.5 points for every thousand dollars, while Minors are worth 1 point for every thousand. But only the top four teams earn points, with 1st earning 50%, 2nd, 30%, and 3rd and 4th both earning 10% (because most Dota tournaments don't differentiate between 3rd and 4th). For example, a three hundred thousand dollar Minor will award the 1st place team 150 points, 90 points for 2nd, and 30 to the 3rd and 4th place teams.
Actually, it's not the teams that earn the points, but the players. Each player receives the full point value earned by his team, and retains it even if he transfers to another team. In the above example, each player on the 1st player team earns 150 points. After the last event concludes on June 10th, each team's point value will be calculated by adding the point values of the top three players on each team. While counting only three players allows a team to make minor alterations to its squad without losing its spot at TI8, it creates a significant problem. A poor team with few points can acquire a player who has earned a points playing for another team. This has already happened with NAVI getting Lil from Virtus Pro, and Fnatic getting Universe from Evil Geniuses. Both NAVI and Fnatic, according to their point total prior to the trade were not in the top eight, but Lil and Universe, carrying their points, have pushed both teams into contention. Someone on Reddit, and I've looked but been unable to located the thread, thought the system could be improved by counting the middle three players instead of the top three, still offering teams the flexibility to augment their squad, but preventing a point value pickup.

Valve included one more rule for events to be Valve sponsored. Each tournament must include a regional qualifier for each of the six popular play areas; China, South East Asia, CIS, Europe, North America, and South America.

As of this moment, sixteen teams have earned qualifying points for the International 8. While only about a third of the points have been allocated, some teams are quite close to the 6,087 points necessary to secure a spot at the International.

1. Secret                       4260
2. Liquid                      3510
3. Virtus Pro                 2700
4. Newbee                    1725
5. Navi                          1110
6. Vici Gaming             1035
7. Mineski                      900
8. Evil Geniuses             885
9. OG                              630
10. LGD                          472
11. Fnatic                        390
12. TNC                          270
13. LGD.Forever Young 200
14. Complexity               135
15. Immortals                   90
16. Kinguin                      90

Based on these numbers, a casual viewer will make incorrect assumptions. NAVI, which just had to replace two of its players, is buoyed by Lil from VP, who brought 900 points of his own, with the next two of Navi earning only 105 apiece. As I mentioned, Fnatic is also boosted by their acquisition, though not as much, by Universe's 255. Though the points do tell some truth, that Secret, Liquid, and VP are truly dominating the competition in the the currency of Dota, they don't tell the entire story.

For an alternative version of strength, let's look at my systems predictions (note, this article was drafted on the 21st, prior to Fnatic's astonishing defeat of Secret, and has not been adjusted).

Top Tier:
1. Liquid
2. Secret
3. NB
4. Vici
5. VP

Mid Tier:
6. EG
7. OG
8. Mineski

Bottom Tier:
9. LGD.FY
10. TNC
11. Empire
12. LGD
13. Fnatic
14. NAVI
15. Kinguin
16.Complexity
As mentioned above, Liquid and Secret are dominating, but the other members of the top five can contest with them. Of the five, Vici is the most recent addition to the tier, having entered this season as non-existent, and earned three second place finishes, though they've failed to win a Major or Minor. Thought Virtus Pro and Newbee have both won a Major and a Minor respectively, they've experienced recent fluctuations in play, which could lead to a drop in position if they aren't rectified. VP's trade with NAVI for Rodger might be their attempt to refit the squad, and future play will see if it was successful.

At the moment, there seem to be very few teams which fit into the Mid Tier. Teams in this bracket regularly beats anything beneath them, but rarely those above them. Though I received grief on Reddit prior to last years International, for claiming OG wasn't even top 8 (and they did end up #8 at TI7), they've repeatedly shown strong performances, including a Minor victory. I'm surprised OG hasn't done better considering Resolution's performance as a stand-in for Empire at TI7 where he carried a sub-par team into the top 8.

EG has been less consistent, releasing my favorite player, Universe, to reshuffle their roster and acquire Misery. The incident occurred, because players wanted to switch their role. Prior to trading Universe, Evil Geniuses included Arteezy, Sumail, Universe, Cr1t, and Fear, playing Carry, Mid, Offlane, Roamer, and Support respectively. But, Fear wanted to return to carry, which he's played well before, and to comply, they shifted Artezzy to Mid, a position he's played professionally as well, but Sumail was forced into the offlane, even though he's never played it, and analysts consider him one of the best mid players. Time will tell if their new positions will bring them success.

Mineski has also won a Minor, and performed consistently, but also, consistently fails to win against the top five teams.

Though the last tier must be termed, the Bottom, it's not to imply their positions are hopeless. In fact, Fnatic, after some roster adjustments a three months ago (releasing Xcalibur to acquire Abed), and then more recently (releasing Ohaiyo to get Universe) , have played startlingly well, and I have no difficulty imagining them in the top 8 by August. LGD.FY and Empire haven't played many tournaments, and along with LGD have demonstrated successively less success, so one would expect their downward trajectory to continue. At the same time, the rejuvenated Fnatic, along with Mineski have blocked TNC from qualifying for tournaments, though TNC has earned a spot at the upcoming Bucharest Major. Complexity has played so many tournaments it's easy to judge them as consistently under-performing, with only one 4th place finish in seven events.

NAVI was doing well with a new roster about three months ago, and could have contended for the Mid Tier, but for one reason or another, recently lost two players, and any past predictions will have to be discarded until new data is produced. Since I don't want to ignore the remaining team, Kinguin's appeared wildly inconsistent, taking series off top five teams, but then losing to mid and bottom tier teams.
This brings us to a few final thoughts about the invites.

Aside from the first few events, Majors are hosting sixteen teams, while Minors involve eight teams. But qualify as a Major or Minor, and be worth points for the International, Valve has mandated that an event include six qualifiers. Though well intentioned, this leads to some odd results.

For instance, over three Majors and nine Minors, no team from South America has earned higher than than 6th at a Minor, or 13-16th at a Major. Yet, one team from South America will always attend. Minors offer the host only two spots to invite teams, while a host of a Major will have ten spots to dispense as they please,whether in direct invites or more regional qualifiers for preferred regions.

One can't speak for the tournament organizers, and how exactly they choose to invite teams. Some may be preferring teams with the most points, while others prefer teams from the region the event is hosted in, some might rank recent performance higher than total point value, and some appear to prefer inviting the perennial fan favorite NAVI. Finally, some events may feel compelled to limit the amount of invites to each region.

Of particular note, one strong team is a perennial loser in the invite system. With the combination of only ten invites, and the strength of Liquid and Secret, hosts have forced OG to play through the European Qualifier, even though they have a 37-2 in European Qualifiers this year, and the ninth highest point value for the season. They are clearly superior to any other European team aside from Kuroky's and Puppey's but are condemned to endless qualifier games. Not only are they being put through an effort they shouldn't have to achieve, the system is blocking other European teams from playing at events. Which inferior teams have gotten invites over them recently? NAVI, Complexity, LGD.Forever Young, and Invictus Gaming (which hasn't played a single Valve level match this season). In addition to these directly invited teams, South American teams, like SG-espots, PAIN gaming, and Infamous are depriving stronger teams of the change to prove themselves. In conclusion, Majors do not include the best sixteen teams, but an awkward compromise.

August is still distant, and though Secret, Liquid, and VP seem like certain invites to TI8, the other five spots are still anyone one's guess . With six Majors, five Minors, and two thirds of the points still to be distributed there's a lot which can occur between now and The International.

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