Dota 2: Ranking and Groups after Mars and Dreamleague

Prior to Mars Dota 2 League 2017 and DreamLeague Season 7 it seemed as though only six teams had a chance of winning TI7 (Liquid, Evil Geniuses, Newbee, Virtus Pro, Secret, and TNC). After these events, the field is wider based on the performance of Chinese teams at Mars. LGD and LGD.Forever Young placed 1^st and 2^nd respectively, defeating both EG and Newbee along the way. In spite of the upsets, EG and Newbee should still be feared, and remain top 4 teams according to my model. With the top three at Mars all from China, (and yes, 5 of the 8 were Chinese, but still) and EG and OG failing to take a top three spot, the region is capitalizing on its potential. But, poor IG, though one of the two direct invitees from China, continued to perform inadequately.

Neither of these upsets were as surprising as Planet Odd's double victory over Secret at DreamLeague. Both LGD and LFY had placed well at recent tournaments; Epicenter, The Summit, and the Chinese Qualifiers. Yet, Secret had secured victory in the European qualifier without challenge, 8-1 (losing only to Mouse Sports), and I had even thought they should have received a direct invite based on their performance at Kiev Major, Epicenter, and the Summit, though they failed to secure a top victory at any event. ODD crashed out of the North American qualifiers, losing to DC and (embarrassingly) CompLexity in the playoffs. Yet at Dreamleague they vanquished Secret 2-1 and then 2-0. Perhaps the most incredible result is that my model ranks them 10^th of all teams currently playing. They are the highest ranked team which should be at the International. In spite of their loss, Secret shouldn't be underestimate either. They've demonstrated substantial strength, though with their loss to ODD and SG-sports at Kiev they've exhibited a tendency to collapse against inferior opponents.

In terms of its effect on rankings for TI7, LGD's, LFY's, and Odd's victories weakened EG, NB, and Secret, and boosted their chances (except for Odd). Their victories also stripped strength from the top teams and spread it out further down the rankings. While Liquid doubled down as the favorite for victory (though they only defeated two non-TI 7 attendees – Odd and Vega), EG, NB, Secret slipped. They all exhibited weakness, and now I'd say the top 9 teams have a chance at the Aegis. This result has made it more difficult to set a top tier. Yet, this effect hasn't benefited OG, whose victory at TI7 appears more implausible. Though they won the group stage at Mars (and ended fourth) they failed to demonstrate real progress. After going 5-2 in the group stage, they went 2-5, with a complete record of 7-7. They climbed one spot on the ranking, but will need to rediscover their brilliance at TI7. But in Dota, a game of constant reinvention, one can't trust to past success.

My new rankings ahead of TI7 are (with the bracket indicating change in rank since the International Regional Qualifiers):

Top Tier: (Significant Chance of Victory)
1)Liquid (0) – Winner of Starladder, Epicenter, DreamLeague
2)VP (+1) – Winner of the Summit

3)EG (-1) – Winner of Manila Major
4)NB (0) – Winner of Zotac and Galaxy
5)TNC (+1) Winner of SEA quals

6)Secret (-1) – Winner of EU quals

7)LGD (+8) – Winner of Mars Dota 2 League

8)LGD.LFY (+4) – Runner up of Mars Dota 2 League

Mid Tier (Surprise Upset Victory)
9)NP (-2) – Winner of NA quals
10)Empire (-1) Winner of CIS quals

11)DC (-1) – 2^nd place in NA quals

12)OG (+1) – Winner of Kiev Major, direct invite

Bottom Tier (Small Chance)

13)IG (-5) – Direct invite
14)Fnatic (-3) – Runner up in SEA quals
15)IG.V (-1) – Winner of China quals
16)Infamous (0) – Winner of SA quals
17)Execration (0) – 3^rd place in SEA quals
18)Planet Dog (0) - 2^nd place in EU quals

A slight readjustment of the group stage, which aims to balance the regional attendance as well as strength looks like this:

Group A:

Liquid (1)

NB (4)

TNC (5)

LGD.FY (8)

NP (9)

Empire (10)

OG (12)

Infamous (16)

Execration (18)

Group B:

VP (2)

EG (3)

Secret (6)

LGD (7)

DC (11)

IG (13)

Fnatic (14)

IGV (15)

Planet Dog (18)

While there is a bit of congregation in both groups (A has 8-10) and B has (13-15), the groups are more balanced in skill than previously, and most importantly, each group contains four of the top eight teams. This is especially important because eight teams advance to the upper bracket. Also, as before, both groups include one of the bottom two teams.

The Group Stage begins August 2^nd, so expect Valve to release the actual groups soon. Before they do, maybe you'd like to share your opinion on the strength of the teams or the composition of the group stage.