The Group
Stage of The International 2018 is over, with eight teams
entering the Upper Bracket of the Main
Event, eight dropping into the Lower Bracket, and two going
home unheralded.
On July
2nd, I predicted the top eight teams. How
did they do?
Of my top eight predictions (Liquid,
LGD, Virtus Pro, Secret, VGJ.Storm, Vici, TNC, and Optic), six are in
the Upper Bracket. The failures: my sixth pick, Vici Gaming, who, in
spite of their recent decline still seemed a formidable opponent, and
my 7th pick, TNC Predator.
The International 8's story though,
isn't about failures, but the surprise upsets. Two teams superseded
any reasonable expectation. The newly remade Evil Geniuses and OG
strove for better seedings than any reasonable person could have
assumed. Both teams, after the
ESL Birmingham Major, realized they had no chance at The
International Aegis with their tepid results. Neither was going to
earn enough DPC points for a direct invite. But their roster
changing reactions were astonishing and devastating. EG dropped two
players (Fear and Misery), and poached OG's stars S4 and original
co-founder of OG, Fly. OG responded by recruiting well known players
Ana and Topson to fill their empty slots.
With only one more event before the
Open Qualifiers, Evil Geniuses tried to demonstrate a new proficiency
at the China
Supermajor, but they earned only a 9th-12th
place finish, knocked out by aspiring North American superpower,
Optic Gaming. OG, already invited to the Supermajor, withdrew to
focus their attention on the Qualifiers. Despite these unexpected
alterations, both teams distinguished themselves in the Open and
Regional
Qualifiers, where OG went 14-2 in Europe, securing themselves
the only slot, and EG narrowly avoided elimination, earning the 2nd
North American invite with a 8-3 result over Immortals.
After a poor performance at the
Supermajor, and a self disqualification, the question remained. How
would these newly reconstituted squads perform against the best teams
in the world? In the initial predictions I placed them 12 (OG) and
15 (EG), but both with a caveat. If the teams, stocked with star
power, could synergize, they might be unstoppable. The results of
the Group Stage prove both teams have coalesced well, offering a
chance at a championship.
My new power rankings (change
since TI8 Qualifiers)
Top Tier:
1) Team Liquid (0)
2) LGD (0)
3) Virtus Pro (0)
4) Evil Geniuses (+11)
Upper-Mid Tier:
5) VGJ.Storm (0)
6) Team Secret (-1)
7) Vici Gaming (-1)
8) OG (+4)
9) Optic Gaming (-1)
Lower-Mid Tier:
10) TNC Predator (-3)
11) Fnatic (-2)
12) Newbee (-1)
Bottom Tier:
13) WinStrike (-3)
14) Mineski (-1)
15) VGJ.Thunder (+1)
16) Serenity (+2)
Observations:
Team Liquid is in the top Tier, but
they're performance this year has elevated them to a tier of their
own. Not only did they lose only three games during the Group Stage,
they have demonstrated for the entire year their excellence and
consistency. Of the thirteen tournaments they participated in this
season, they placed 4th or higher in all but three. Other
teams rise and fall, but Liquid remains above them all.
One might be surprised at a few
changes, or lack of. Even though Vici recorded only a 7-9 result in
the Group Stage, they only drop one place in the rankings. Their
loses to TNC, Optic, and Storm hurt, but their victory over the
indomitable Virtus Pro steadied their strength. VGJ.Storm, in spite
of winning their group with a strong 12-4 record, remained in 5th
place, and behind Virtus Pro. Fact, two of Storm's four loses were
to the Russian squad. And Optic dropped a spot even though they made
top eight in the Group Stage. But they barely snuck into the Upper
Bracket, needing a triple tiebreaker with Secret and Newbee, while
both OG and EG vaulted to the top of the list.
All the other results seem self
explanatory, though as a Universe fan, disappointing.
Below you'll find my Bracket for the
Main event, in which all decisions were made by my power ranking.
Unfortunately, sometimes my ranking says two teams are essentially
equal, in which case I am forced to execute an executive decision.
The most difficult decision was the
starting Upper Bracket game between Virtus Pro and LGD (And the Lower
Bracket Round 5, where I have them meeting again). Also agonizing,
was the LGD and VGJ.Storm game in the lower bracket. According to my
model, LGD is significantly stronger, but Storm has been surging. I
decided to follow the model. And finally, VP vs EG in the lower
bracket final. Both are about the same strength at this moment, with
VP only a sliver ahead. I think EG's recent performance might
prophesy success (until they lose to Liquid in the final).
On a unrelated topic (but still Dota),
the Fantasy Draft bothered me last
year and though I should abandon the topic, I can't let it
lie. For the Fantasy Draft, each day, the viewer picks 2 core
players, 1 offlaner, and 2 supports. Depending on a number of
criteria, each player earns fantasy points for each game. The
problem is, players earn more points, the more games they play. A
player in two games, will earn roughly double the value of a player
in 1 game. During the group stage, teams play different numbers of
games each day. Some teams play 2 the first day, while others play
3, or 1. This limits the viewer in their fantasy draft, not based on
how good a player, but by the schedule. It severely restricts the
players the viewer can choose.
The problem is eliminated on
the Main Stage. A player is awarded points for their best 2 games in a best of 3, or their best 3 games in the Grand Final best of 5.
Two lesser problems remain. The first day,
there are 4 best of ones. All these players are not viable options
because they only play one game. And the last day of the main event
includes the lower bracket final and the grand final. Because one
team will be playing in both series, they will play a minimum of 5
games (a best of three, and a best of five), while the team already
at the Grand Final will only play the best of five. The rules are unclear if these players only earn their best 3 games, or their 2 best of 3 and 3 best of 5. If the later then the team at the
Grand Finals can not possibly play more games than the lower bracket
winner. Therefore a viewer can earn the most points by picking
players from the team they think will win the lower bracket,
regardless of their performance at the grand final.
Ultimately, the fantasy draft is less
about picking the best players, but picking the teams which will play
the most games. If that's what Valve want's the system to be, that's
fine, but if they want it to be about the best players, I have a
solution.
Each day, the players earn their
points, but they are divided by the number of games played. The
viewer only scores the average value of their players for the day.
It makes all the teams viable, everyday (except those not playing at
all). It would allow many more options, and increase the viewer
variability.
One last thought on the Fantasy Game.
As I said earlier, Dota enables viewers to pick 2 cores, an offlane,
and 2 supports. Unfortunately, anyone picking a position 4 support
will not earn enough points. This is because, position 5 supports,
place vision wards, and wards are worth too many points.
Therefore, there is no reason to pick position 4 players, who rarely
ward. One fifth of players are completely nonviable the entire
tournament. Placing a ward should be worth less points, but that's
not the only change I recommend. Placing a ward requires no skill.
Placing it well does. Instead of receiving points for placing a
ward, I have a few recommendations.
Points are awarded:
For a ward that is not dewarded, and
lasts the entire time.
For how long a ward lasts, before it is
dewarded.
For how long enemies are in vision of
the ward.
For how many enemies are killed in
vision of the ward.
Not for how many wards are placed, but
how many are dewarded by a player.
As a person with zero programming
skills, except for my time with Human
Resource Machine, I don't know how difficult it would be to
implement any of these options, but I believe any of them would be
preferable to the current system.
To concluded, I'm interested about any
reader's bracket. I've looked at Gosu.AI's
and theirs shares some similarities with mine. Next Monday article
will conclude the 2017/2018 Dota Season. After that, Awkward Mixture
will begin an adventure into Darkness.
Recent:
Relevant:
Comments
Post a Comment