Dota 2: Post Qualifiers for The International 2018

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I'd originally planned to write about the results of the Defense of the Ancients International Open and Regional Qualifiers. Compose a final rundown before the group stage begins on August 15th. But, now there's another event before The International, Dota Summit 9. Unfortunately, the teams are still unannounced, with one spot reserved for the winner of the Beyond The Summit Summer Cup. Aside from the date (July 25th - 28th) there is no information, no prize pool, no number of teams invited, nothing. This event won't effect any team's invite to TI8, so ultimately it offers no impact. But it's one final chance for teams to demonstrate their ability before the Main Event. The question is: at The Summit 9 will they play to win or for fun?

Even though the Summit may alter perceptions about the participating teams, I'm going continue and offer my evaluation of the eighteen teams attending The International 2018 today.

Eight teams received direct invites to The International because of their success during the 2017/2018 season. Ten more teams were eligible to earn an invite by securing victory through the six regional Qualifiers (North America, South America, China, Europe, CIS, and Southeast Asia). Before the Qualifiers I posted my top 18 teams, and now it's time to review the results.

What was the resolution? Of my top 18 teams, 16 will be attending TI8. Only LGD.FY and NAVI failed to claim a spot (the latter in spectacularly abysmal fashion). Below is compiled a new power ranking with the 18 teams attending the International. They are separated into tiers and listed by ability. The difference between teams of different tiers is significant, while the difference between two teams within a tier (such as 1st and 2nd place) are small but not insignificant.
Top Tier: (Significant Chance of Victory)

  1. Team Liquid – Last year's T I winners. They didn't win as many events this season as Virtus Pro, but performed the most consistently throughout the year.
  2. LGD – Started terribly, like bottom 2 at the Summit 8 Minor. But since DAC have looked unstoppable.
  3. Virtus Pro – When they are hot they are unbeatable, but suffer from significant downturns.

Upper -Mid Tier (Moderate Chance of Victory)

  1. Team Secret – Good start at the season, but with some recent failures.
  2. VGJ.Storm – Only played three events near the end of the season, so some questions about consistency, but looked great during their short time. Crushed the North American Open Qualifiers.
  3. Vici Gaming – Performed well in the middle of the season, but on the decline since MDL Changsha.
  4. TNC Predator – Only mild success throughout the year but a strong finish. Personally I don't think they rate this highly, but my system does, so here they are.
  5. Optic Gaming – A team which has demonstrated real improvement since their formation in the beginning of the season. A strong underdog pick.
  6. Fanatic – A team which seemed to show a lot of promise midway through the season, but they've floundered recently.

Lower-Mid Tier (Minimal Chance of Victory)

  1. Winstrike (formerly FlytoMoon) – Only played in two events, both at the end of the season. May perform better than expected.
  2. Newbee – Last year's 2nd place finish at The International. First team to lose 3-0 in the Grand Finals at TI. Along with Liquid they dominated at the beginning of the season, but haven't performed well for some time.
  3. OG – This newly reformed team destroyed in the European Qualifiers. They lost only two games out of sixteen! Their new roster includes some returning faces (such as Ana), and if they sync expect this team to have a chance at the Aegis.
  4. Mineski – This team has been remarkably consistent, at being mediocre. What looked like a strong team early in the season has only proved its strength once, at DAC.
  5. Pain Gaming – The only South American team, they've shown some unexpected resilience since w33haa joined the squad in April, but can he carry them into the top 8?
  6. Evil Geniuses – Peaked in the middle of the season, and collapsed due to internal disputes. At the end of the regular season they acquired S4 and Fly from OG. If this new roster can synthesize the abilities of their five players they could break into the top.

Bottom Tier (Insignificant Chance of Victory)

  1. VGJ. Thunder – This team squeaked into The International on three 2nd place finishes in the middle of the season. They haven't performed even half as well since.
  2. Invictus Gaming – Participated in only two events this season. Performed terribly, and didn't even earn a fourth place finish. Going to the International because China has too many Regional invites.
  3. Team Serenity – A brand new team from China, formed in January of 2018. Surprised everyone by knocking out LGD.FY and winning the China Regional. Since nothing is known about them, they could surprise at the Main Event... or they could be eliminated swiftly.
The follow up topic then, is how to arrange them. The International begins with the Group Stage, where all eighteen teams are divided into two groups, and in that group they play every other member in a best of 2. From these groups, the bottom team is eliminated, 5-8 are placed in the lower bracket of the Main Event, and the top 4 are placed in the upper bracket. Ensuring a fair Main Stage is important because the teams in the upper bracket have a significant advantage, and therefore requires a reasonable distribution of the eighteen teams into the two groups.

For last years International I said a fair group stage required two criteria. Trying to balance the number of teams from each region and the strength of each group. For instance, Europe has 3 invited teams: so 2 should be in one group and 1 in the other. A final, less crucial criteria, if possible each group should contain half of the eight directly invited teams.

Let's begin. Liquid (1) of Europe goes in group A. 2nd place, LGD of China goes in group B. VP (3) of CIS should go in group B, but Secret (4) is the second European team, and they should not be placed with Liquid. So VP goes into group A and Secret into B

Group A: Liquid (1) and VP (3)
Group B: LGD (2) and Secret (4)

Next, Vici Gaming (6), the second Chinese team, should not be included with LGD, so they go in Group A, and 5th place VGJ.Storm (the first North American team) goes into group B. TNC (7) could go into either group, as it is the first team from Southeast Asia, but Optic (8) from NA should not be placed with VGJ.Storm. Optic has to go into group A and TNC into B.

Group A: Liquid (1), VP (3), Vici (6), Optic (8)
Group B: LGD (2), Secret (4), VGJ.Storm (5), TNC (7)

Fnatic (9) from SEA, should be opposite TNC, so into A they go, while Winstrike (10), the only other CIS team, fits nicely into Group B, away from VP. The third Chinese team, Newbee (11) goes into B to avoid Vici, and OG of Europe is repelled from Group A (into B) by Secret.

Group A: Liquid (1), VP (3), Vici (6), Optic (8), Fnatic (9), OG (12)
Group B: LGD (2), Secret (4), VGJ.Storm (5), TNC (7), Winstrike (10), Newbee (11)

Mineski (13), the third SEA team slots into group B away from Fnatic, and the first and only South American Team, Pain Gaming (14) can go into A. Evil Geniuses (15), of NA, should really avoid Optic by being in B, and VGJ.Thunder (16), the 4th Chinese team goes opposite Newbee. The last two teams, Invictus Gaming (17) and Team Serenity (18) are both Chinese and can be placed in Group A and B respectively.

In conclusion:

Group A:

Liquid (1)*
VP (3)*
Vici (6)*
Optic (8)
Fnatic (9)
OG (12)
Pain (14)
Thunder (16)*
IG (17)

Group B:

LGD (2)*
Secret (4)*
Storm (5)
TNC (7)
Winstrike (10)
NB (11)*
Mineski (13)*
EG (15)
Serenity (18)

Both groups are well balanced for regions and strength, and readers will also notice that each contains four of the direct invites to The International marked with an asterisk.

There will be another Dota article after the Group Stage for one final evaluation before the the Main Event (August 20th).

Before that, it would be great to hear some other opinions about the teams for TI8.

Next week, Divinity: Original Sin (Enhanced Edition).

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