North Korea:
Part of the issue originates,
surprisingly, from the White House's indifference to appointing
experts to fill administrative positions. Though over a year into
his Presidency, Trump has failed to nominate
advisers to fill over 250 positions, and now another must be added,
because a nominee has found his nomination rescinded.
Victor Cha, President George W. Bush's
top adviser on North Korea, was five days ago, but no longer is, the
nominated pick as the United State's ambassador to South Korea. The
reason: last December, the administration internally floated a
“bloody nose” strategy to curb North Korea's nuclear program. In
short, the United States would launch a limited strike against North
Korea to persuade it to accept talks with the goal of eliminating the
development of nuclear weapons.
Supposedly, the administration asked
Cha how he would feel about overseeing an evacuation of Americans
from South Korea in preparation for the strike. Cha expressed
disapproval for both the strike and the evacuation,
and publicly declared his feeling in a Washington
Post editorial, published January 30th. In it, he
addresses the key points which differentiates between those
supporting a strike, and those against. “If North Korea is
undeterrable without a strike,” Cha writes, “how can we believe a
strike will deter them?”
The main issue: major elements of the
Trump White House believe North Korea is undeterrable because it is
irrational. Not unique to this administration, this disorder is so prevalent, I refer to it as the All Enemies of the United States
are Irrational propaganda. Examples are abundant, though
sometimes the proposition is inferred of out-rightly declared.
Whenever the United States focuses on a foreign foe, the national
propaganda machine (White House, Pentagon, and the media complex)
slander them as irrational, insane, and unreasonable, all of which,
justifies unjustifiable preemptive assault or other otherwise
unacceptable measures. Just type in the name one of the United
State's international antagonist and some variation of irrational,
and you'll see an article about them.
It's become clear that some in the
White House, the Pentagon, and their affiliates, see North Korea as
undeterrable, that is, unable to be threatened into acquiescence of
American might. This contradicts the majority expert opinion,
including Cha's. No dove, Cha, believes the United States should
pursue a economic and political policy which leaves North Korea
friendless and helpless, with the goal of bringing them to
bargaining. Allowing the recently imposed sanctions the time to
teeth, is a start, along with the unconventional approach of
enforcing a naval cordon which prevents the regime from exporting
nuclear material. Such a plan, I assume, would require a United
States inspection of every ship departing North Korea, a substantial
imposition, but certainly preferable to war.
Cha argues that a “bloody nose” is
an unacceptable risk, because he does not believe the United States
is able of preventing an escalation, since the line for aggression,
the trigger for war has been clouded by the incendiary ejaculations
emanating from the President. With 230 thousand United States'
citizens in South Korea, and another 90 thousand in Japan, very few
of who could be evacuated during a war, Cha sees the casualties as
akin to the loss of “a medium-size U.S. city — Pittsburgh, say,
or Cincinnati”: intolerable. At the same time, Japan
has begun planning a procedure if it needed to remove its 60 thousand
citizens from South Korea to moderately more security on the
homeland.
If Kim Jong Un, is irrational as the
White House claims, Cha explains, there can be no deterrent. That's
a terrifying thought. In such a case, preventing North Korea from
acquiring nuclear weapons is the only acceptable outcome, and
annihilating them in a devastating war is preferable to allowing
their achievement. Cha doesn't believe North Korea is undeterrable,
but this is supposedly why his nomination was rescinded by the White
House. That implies another horrifying thought: the consensus in the
White House does accept Cha's conclusions. And the corollary: they
are moving forward with their plan.
Leaks from inside the various branches
of the executive fortunately indicate that there is still debate
about the path forward. As discussed in December, National Security
Adviser H. R. McMaster seems to believe only complete
denuclearization is an acceptable, and has publicly declared his
belief that North Korea isn't rational.
New
York Magazine reports of the disagreement between McMaster,
Mattis, and Tillerson, with the latter two preferring diplomacy to
McMaster's limited strike. Tillerson's opinion has been obvious,
repeatedly offering unconditional talks, and repeatedly undercut by
the President's belligerent tweets. Mattis' attempt to downplay
immediate conflict have been more muted.
Some have questioned whether McMaster
is merely playing a part, pretending to be an aggressive bad cop to
Tillerson's good, in an attempt to coerce North Korea, but this
leaked discussion appears to preclude this case. It seems McMaster
actually believes North Korea is incapable of acting it in its own
interest. Cha,
like most experts, believe “that dictatorships like North
Korea—their primary goal is to survive, rather than exert itself as
a scourge upon the United States.
This article doesn't begin to consider
the President's State of the Union, the publicly acknowledged
reassignment of men and material to the peninsula, and the White
House campaign to convince the public of the necessity of its action,
or lack there of. Even the issue or irrationally isn't conclusive,
and issues leading to, or preventing escalation are still left
unexamined. Even without any further development, this issue will
require two or three more articles to conclude.
With the imminent opening of the 2018
Winter Olympics in South Korea (February 9th), one might
imagine a temporary deescalation, as the hosting country allows its
northern neighbor to participate jointly, but that's exactly what a
rational actor, would expect of the irrational.
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