The Irrational Nation: Can It Be Deterred?

North Korea:

If the likelihood of war between North Korea and the United States seemed relevant back in early December, news concurrent with the President's State of the Union has escalated it to just short of imminent.

Part of the issue originates, surprisingly, from the White House's indifference to appointing experts to fill administrative positions. Though over a year into his Presidency, Trump has failed to nominate advisers to fill over 250 positions, and now another must be added, because a nominee has found his nomination rescinded.

Victor Cha, President George W. Bush's top adviser on North Korea, was five days ago, but no longer is, the nominated pick as the United State's ambassador to South Korea. The reason: last December, the administration internally floated a “bloody nose” strategy to curb North Korea's nuclear program. In short, the United States would launch a limited strike against North Korea to persuade it to accept talks with the goal of eliminating the development of nuclear weapons.

Supposedly, the administration asked Cha how he would feel about overseeing an evacuation of Americans from South Korea in preparation for the strike. Cha expressed disapproval for both the strike and the evacuation, and publicly declared his feeling in a Washington Post editorial, published January 30th. In it, he addresses the key points which differentiates between those supporting a strike, and those against. “If North Korea is undeterrable without a strike,” Cha writes, “how can we believe a strike will deter them?”

The main issue: major elements of the Trump White House believe North Korea is undeterrable because it is irrational. Not unique to this administration, this disorder is so prevalent, I refer to it as the All Enemies of the United States are Irrational propaganda. Examples are abundant, though sometimes the proposition is inferred of out-rightly declared. Whenever the United States focuses on a foreign foe, the national propaganda machine (White House, Pentagon, and the media complex) slander them as irrational, insane, and unreasonable, all of which, justifies unjustifiable preemptive assault or other otherwise unacceptable measures. Just type in the name one of the United State's international antagonist and some variation of irrational, and you'll see an article about them.

It's become clear that some in the White House, the Pentagon, and their affiliates, see North Korea as undeterrable, that is, unable to be threatened into acquiescence of American might. This contradicts the majority expert opinion, including Cha's. No dove, Cha, believes the United States should pursue a economic and political policy which leaves North Korea friendless and helpless, with the goal of bringing them to bargaining. Allowing the recently imposed sanctions the time to teeth, is a start, along with the unconventional approach of enforcing a naval cordon which prevents the regime from exporting nuclear material. Such a plan, I assume, would require a United States inspection of every ship departing North Korea, a substantial imposition, but certainly preferable to war.

Cha argues that a “bloody nose” is an unacceptable risk, because he does not believe the United States is able of preventing an escalation, since the line for aggression, the trigger for war has been clouded by the incendiary ejaculations emanating from the President. With 230 thousand United States' citizens in South Korea, and another 90 thousand in Japan, very few of who could be evacuated during a war, Cha sees the casualties as akin to the loss of “a medium-size U.S. city — Pittsburgh, say, or Cincinnati”: intolerable. At the same time, Japan has begun planning a procedure if it needed to remove its 60 thousand citizens from South Korea to moderately more security on the homeland.

If Kim Jong Un, is irrational as the White House claims, Cha explains, there can be no deterrent. That's a terrifying thought. In such a case, preventing North Korea from acquiring nuclear weapons is the only acceptable outcome, and annihilating them in a devastating war is preferable to allowing their achievement. Cha doesn't believe North Korea is undeterrable, but this is supposedly why his nomination was rescinded by the White House. That implies another horrifying thought: the consensus in the White House does accept Cha's conclusions. And the corollary: they are moving forward with their plan.

Leaks from inside the various branches of the executive fortunately indicate that there is still debate about the path forward. As discussed in December, National Security Adviser H. R. McMaster seems to believe only complete denuclearization is an acceptable, and has publicly declared his belief that North Korea isn't rational.

New York Magazine reports of the disagreement between McMaster, Mattis, and Tillerson, with the latter two preferring diplomacy to McMaster's limited strike. Tillerson's opinion has been obvious, repeatedly offering unconditional talks, and repeatedly undercut by the President's belligerent tweets. Mattis' attempt to downplay immediate conflict have been more muted.

Some have questioned whether McMaster is merely playing a part, pretending to be an aggressive bad cop to Tillerson's good, in an attempt to coerce North Korea, but this leaked discussion appears to preclude this case. It seems McMaster actually believes North Korea is incapable of acting it in its own interest. Cha, like most experts, believe “that dictatorships like North Korea—their primary goal is to survive, rather than exert itself as a scourge upon the United States.

This article doesn't begin to consider the President's State of the Union, the publicly acknowledged reassignment of men and material to the peninsula, and the White House campaign to convince the public of the necessity of its action, or lack there of. Even the issue or irrationally isn't conclusive, and issues leading to, or preventing escalation are still left unexamined. Even without any further development, this issue will require two or three more articles to conclude.

With the imminent opening of the 2018 Winter Olympics in South Korea (February 9th), one might imagine a temporary deescalation, as the hosting country allows its northern neighbor to participate jointly, but that's exactly what a rational actor, would expect of the irrational.

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