Dota 2: After The International 7 Regional Qualifiers

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 About this time of year Dota 2 completely absorbs my attention.  The International 7 Regional Qualifiers are over, and its time to review and reevaluate.

In Europe, Secret dominated the competition, while Planet Dog (formerly members of ProDota Gaming) managed to surprise favorites, Mousesports, Danish Bears, and Singularity.  Synderen's much lauded team, Cresendo, failed to perform to their potential at their premier debut, finishing 2-7, and both Alliance and Loda demonstrated they need each other to succeed.

CIS only had one spot, and yet strong name recognition for a number of teams.  Empire triumphed over competitors VEGA, NAVI, and unsuspected competition from Funn1k's stack, M19.  NAVI failed to make the top 4 in the group after losing their last two games to Spirit and Vega.  Empire convincingly won the playoffs without losing a single game, going 7-0.

China, with three spots to TI7, concluded as one would have expected, with IG.V, LGD, and LFY qualifying, but the region demonstrated particular strength, with lesser known teams challenging the qualifying teams. LGD and LFY struggled a bit more than one would have suspected, and that shows in their new placement in the top 18.

South East Asia experienced the biggest upset, as TNC secured a spot, but supposed 2nd place finisher, Team Faceless failed to achieve a spot in the playoffs.  With Faceless eliminated, Fnatic's second place finish was not unexpected (I thought they would take the 3rd spot), but Team Execration's grit driven victory astonished Mineski and Clutch Gamers to round out SEA.

Some people will be surprised by Planet Odd's loss to CompLexity in the North American regional, (myself included) but NP earning the first spot, and DC taking the second is a predictable outcome.  Team Freedom almost upset the bracket but DC's 3-0 victory at the final sealed their fate.

Finally, South America was the most most difficult to offer an initial prediction, but Infamous was one of the top two teams admist a collection of untested teams.

After the qualifiers, how does the ranking look now?

In the last article I listed my top 18. I list my new top 18 with how they earned their spot at International, and how they've changed in the rankings.

Top Tier
1)Liquid (Starladder and Epicenter)
2)EG (Manila)
3)VP (Summit)
4)NB (Zotac and Galaxy)
5)Secret – winner of EU quals
6)TNC – winner of SEA quals

Mid Tier:
7)NP (+3) – winner of NA quals
8)IG (+1) – direct invite
9)Empire (New) winner of CIS quals
10)DC (+1) – runner up in NA quals
11)Fnatic (+5) – runner up in SEA quals
12)LFY (-5) – runner up in China quals
13)OG (-1) – direct invite
14)IGV (+4) – winner of China quals

Bottom Tier:
15)LGD (-2) - 3rd place in China quals
16)Infamous (New) – winner of SA quals
17)Execration (New) – 3rd place in SEA quals
18)Planet Dog (New) - 2nd place in EU quals

This is the ranking of the 18 teams attending The International 7, and it includes some new names. With four new teams, a quartet have fallen off. Yet, this is not a list of the top eighteen. Three of the four who failed to qualify are still in the top 18. Planet Odd plummeted six spots to 14th, in spite of their loss to Complexity, while SG-esports fell two places to 17th after losing in the South American finals to Infamous, and Mousesports slid one spot to 18th after losing to Planet Dog in the EU finals. Team Faceless plunged eight spots into a tie for 22nd. Regardless of their current ranking, these teams are irrelevant for the remainder of the season, though Planet Odd can seek some consolation at DreamLeague Season 7.

With TI7 a month away there are still two premier events with which to further evaluate the competition. Mars Dota 2 League 2017 ends July 9th, and includes TI attendees Newbee, EG, IG, OG, LFY, and LGD along with Vici Gaming and Clutch Gaming. The main team to watch is OG, who won Kiev, but have performed especially poorly since then at the Manila Major and Epicenter. Can they recover some momentum before Seattle? DreamLeague Season 7 consists of a smaller cast, including TI7 attendees Secret and Liquid, along with Vega Squadron and Planet Odd. The presumptive final will be Secret and Liquid, two of the strongest teams in Dota.

But eventually, Valve must create its two groups for TI7. At The International, the eighteen teams will be divided into two groups of nine, and play two matches against each opponent in the group. The results of this Group Stage will eliminate the bottom team of each group, and seed the playoff bracket. Therefore, a balanced Group Stage is an essential component for a successful tournament. The Kiev Major debuted a novel approach: the Swiss System, in which teams always play an opponent with the same record. It proved itself remarkably predictive of the Main Event, aside from top-seeded Secret's first round elimination to bottom seed, SG e-sports. In general, premier events since Kiev have included balanced groups, with the exception of Galaxy Battles. Newbee and TNC, the only teams with a significant chance of victory, were in the same group, and Group A finished with teams in 1st, 3rd, and 4th.

How should Valve determine its two groups and avoid any mistakes? There are two main components: groups should be balanced in regards to the strength of the teams, and by the regions they come from. A generality: There should be an equal number of teams from each region in each group. For instance, Europe has 4 invited teams: so 2 should be in group A and 2 should be in group B. If a region has an odd number of teams, the last is reserved to balance the groups at the end. Valve should consider this factor, because teams suffer from rigidity in playing only their region. They need to be challenged by the playstyles of other regions. Further, it allows for a proper evaluation of each team, and doesn't lead to any false positives: a team performing exceptionally well against its own region, but performing poorly across the regional spectrum (and false negatives with a team generating poor results against its own region, but lining up well against other regions). If a region has an odd number of teams, the last is reserved to balance the groups at the end.

Secondly (and no less important), each group needs to be of relatively the same strength.

More specifically:

Europe has four teams, which are (ranked) Liquid (1), Secret (5), OG(13), and Dog (18). The best Group Stage would have Liquid and Secret in seperate groups. It would be preferable to have one group contain the 1st and 4th team, with the 2nd and 3rd team in the other group. This will balance the strength of the two groups. So Liquid and Dog in group A, and Secret with OG in group B.
Assuming Newbee is the second best team, (though there seem to be four essentially equal teams) Newbee should not be in the same group as Liquid. China's five teams are, NB(2), IG(8), LFY (12), IGV (14), and LGD (15). With NB in group B (because Liquid is in group A), IG goes in A, LFY goes in A, IGV into B, and LGD is reserved for later.

On reserve: LGD (15)

Assuming (again) that EG (3) is slightly better than VP, EG goes into the same group at NB, group B. Then NP (7) goes into the opposite group, group A. DC (10) held in reserve.

On reserve: DC (10), LGD (15)

VP is the last of the premier event winners, one of the top four. It goes into the same group as the one seed, Liquid, which is group A. There is only one other CIS team, so Empire (9), goes to group B.

On reserve: DC (10), LGD (15)

Infamous, the solo South American seed is 16th, so into reserve they go.

On reserve: DC (10), LGD (15), Infamous (16)

Group A has the 1st, 4th, 7th, 8th, 12th, and 18th seed. Group B has 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 9th, 13th, and 14th. And we need to insert the SEA region with TNC (6), Fnatic (11), and Execration (17). In spite of the dangers of creating a group with teams 6-8 top TNC needs to be in group A. The main reason: the top six teams are performing significantly better than the other teams. For this reason, it would be unreasonable to load Group B with 2, 3, 5, and 6. So TNC in group A, Fnatic in B, and Execration on reserve.

With four teams on reserve, and all the regions examined, it's time to consider how to make the groups even. Execration is 17th, and should not be in the same group as the 18th team, Planet Dog. These teams are the most likely to be eliminated by the Group Stage, therefore Execration goes into group B. Group A includes 1,4,6,7,8,12, and 18, while B has 2,3,5,9,11,13,14, and 17 (with one more team than A). To balance the groups as best as possible, LGD and Infamous should be separated, with the slightly worse team in group A, because currently it is the stronger group. So Infamous goes to A and LGD to B. That leaves only DC and a spot in group A. If the groups seemed remarkably asymmetrical it might be time to shift teams, regardless of region. In this case, the best trade might be Fnatic for DC. Another possibility would be a larger shift of IG and Infamous for Fnatic and LGD. Moving just IG for Fnatic, is untenable as it would create a group with four of the five Chinese teams. Additionally, it seems impossible to move Empire (then both CIS would be in the same group) or NP which would put it into the same group as EG. These trades are useful speculation, the groups are better without them.

A significant boost to the current Group Stage as proposed, it allows Valve to have three of its directly invited teams in each group: Liquid, VP, and IG in A, with NB, EG, and OG in B. No overlap of regions either. Moving IG (as theorized above) would upset this dynamic.
And so, the groups:

Group A
Liquid (1)
VP (4)
TNC (6)
NP (7)
IG (8)
DC (10)
LFY (12)
Infamous (16)
Planet Dog (18)

Group B
NB (2)
EG (3)
Secret (5)
Empire (9)
Fnatic (11)
OG (13)
IGV (14)
LGD (15)
Execration (17)

Final thoughts: Someone is going to say OG should be higher. Maybe they should, but they played very poorly at the last two events they attended, Manila Major and Epicenter. As mentioned above, they have a chance to boost their ranking before TI.

Next, these two groups both have a balance of regions and are fairly the same in ability, with group A appearing slightly stronger.

Finally, it's not clear when Valve will announce the groups. If they wait until after Mars Dota (7/9) or Dreamleague (7/22) these could change a bit.

I'm interested to hear from anyone else following the scene. Based off of many rankings how would you design the group stage? Or with your own rankings what would the groups be?

Look for a revision after the results of Mars Dota and DreamLeague, assuming the Group Stage hasn't been announced before then. 

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