Yesterday was the end of the Summit 7, and upon its conclusion Valve released the invitations to The International 7, Dota 2's Super Bowl. Recently Dota 2 reached the 100 million mark: the sport has awarded over 100 million dollars, and was the first e-sport to do so. This year TI7 is likely to set the record again for most prize money in a single e-sport event. And like every year, Valve is always working to improve the experience. For 2017, TI7 will expand no include not just sixteen, but eighteen teams in the group stage round robin. Valve has also broken up two qualifier regions. Qualifiers used to include the Americas (North and South), which played on the US server to the detriment of South American teams, and Europe which has been separated into Europe and CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States). But even having expanded the total number of entrants, Valve only concluded six were worthy of direct invitation, while the other twelve must compete through regional qualifiers. Let's evaluate the invitations. Since the Kiev Major I've been using simple formulas to evaluate the performance of all the teams who have participated in a Premier Event. This includes Kiev, StarLadder, Manila Major, ZOTAC Cup, Epicenter, Galaxy, Summit 7, and both Mars and DreamLeague (the latter two haven't begun yet).
The six invited teams are OG, Team Liquid, Virtus Pro, Evil Geniuses, Invictus Gaming, and Newbee. Why did they receive direct invites? OG won the Kiev Major, and also four of the five Majors in the last two years. But they've performed poorly at their two recent events, Manila, and Epicenter, where they lost to Faceless, Newbee, Liquid, Secret, and LGD.FY. They didn't even advance out of the group stage at Epicenter. But while their performance has been abysmal, Valve always awards an invite to the winner of their last event.
Liquid, VP, EG, and NB are all (according to my model) tied for first, but Liquid's victory at Epicenter (and StarLadder) puts them on top, because it was the event with the best collection of teams. I had doubted them, coming out of Kiev, where they finished in the middle, but since then they've dominated. VP, EG, and NB have all won a premier event (or two), though Newbee's were among weaker competition.
While these five teams deserve their invite, Invictus Gaming does not. While they were a top team at Kiev, they failed to qualify for the Summit (losing to LGD), and have failed to place better than fourth at Starladder, Manila, or Epicenter, losing to Liquid, NP, and Secret respectively. According to my calculations, TNC and Secret are significantly better.
And finally, for the direct invites. While one can imagine passing over TNC (who have only participated in weaker events), Secret undeniably deserves a spot. They crushed in the group stage of Kiev (going 6-0) before their fluky loss to SG. They also messed up at Manila, but at Epicenter beat OG, Liquid, NAVI, and IG. At the Summit they made it to the Finals, going through the upper bracket, and only losing 2-3 to VP. Though IG received a direct invite, Secret has beaten them in their last two match-ups.
In total, the direct invites are two Europe, one CIS, one North America, and two China teams. To balance out the scene, Valve has offered regional qualifier spots: two for Europe, one for CIS, two for North America, three for China, three for South East Asia, and one for South America. While at first I thought the final result (adding direct and qualifiers together) created some terrible results (only two for CIS, but three of SEA, four for EU, and five for China), it actually matches well with my top eighteen teams. Before we conclude with that, here's a preview of the potential Qualifier winners.
In Europe, Secret will experience no difficulty trouncing the opposition. While Danish Bears, Mousesports, and Singularity all participated in a premier tournament (Mouse was in two) their results were lackluster. Mouse is currently the second pick, but it's not a certain thing. Of the remaining teams, there aren't any big names, except Crescendo. Though untested, but packed full of talent (captained by Synderen), and real opportunity to challenge for the second spot. EU Picks (2): Secret (definitely), Mouse (probably) Cresendo (maybe) Bears or Singularity (unlikely)
While the CIS has better name recognition than EU, everyone has failed to perform since Kiev. Of the eight teams, only NAVI, Empire, and Vega have participated in a Premier event, and all failed to perform. Secret and Mouse are better than any of them, and so it makes sense to give EU two spots and CIS one. Of these three CIS teams, NAVI has performed slightly better. They beat Empire in the Summit Qualifiers, and outperformed both Vega and Empire in various qualifiers. But this is a weak area right now, and it's possible Effect or Spirit could beat the favorites.
CIS Pick (1): NAVI (probably), Vega or Empire (possibly), Effect or Spirit (maybe)
China has three qualifier spots which is good because they have quite a few strong teams. LGD, LGD.FY, Vici, IG.V, and VG.J have all participated in premier events, and though LGD and LGD FY have only participated in one event each, they have outperformed expectations, with LGD placing third at the Summit and LGD.FY placing third at Epicenter. Though they would later lose to Liquid, LGD.FY beat Secret, Liquid, OG, and NAVI in the group stage, and LGD beat VP (though they would lose in the rematch). On the other hand, IG.V was in the bottom half at Kiev and though they've been to to two of the weakest tournaments, they were still eliminated early by NP at Zotac, and TNC at Galaxy. Vici performed poorly at Galaxy, and VG.J was one of the bottom two teams at the Summit. Of the teams that didn't participate in an event, EHOME has the possibility to win, co-opting two members of TI6 winners, Wings Gaming. Even CDEC shouldn't be counted out with three spots available.
China Picks (3): LGD.FY and LGD (probably), IG.V, VG.J, or EHOME (maybe), Vici or CDEC (unlikely).
South East Asia had no teams receive a direct invite, but contains a number of strong teams, like TNC, Fnatic, Faceless, Clutch, and Happy Feet, all of whom participated in a premier tournament. The strongest of these is TNC who went 3-1 in the Kiev group stage (though later losing to their regional nemesis Faceless in the playoffs), and also placing second at StarLadder and third at Galaxy. Yet those were two of the weaker tournaments, and TNC has difficulty beating other SEA teams to qualify. Faceless hasn't done as well, but beat TNC at Kiev, and Clutch and OG at Manila, before losing to NP. Clutch and Happy Feet have failed to find success, but Fnatic did ok at Zotac. It seems that, while TNC does best internationally, and Faceless constantly thwarts TNC, SEA qualifiers are a toss up, with fairly even chances across the region. This includes Mineski, a team which has failed to qualify, but contains excellent players, like Mushi.
SEA picks (3): TNC (definitely), Faceless (probably), Fnatic or Mineski (possibly) Clutch or Happy Feet (unlikely)
Of the all the regions, North America deserves one more spot, and it should be taken from CIS, because they don't have any team which has performed well enough to deserve it (though denying CIS a qualifier would be unconscionable – so I'm not really advocating for it). Three teams from North America have participated in premier events, and all have done at least tolerably well. Both ODD (former Thunderbirds, formerly DC) and NP have performed well against strong teams, though they often fail against the top tier. ODD earned second place at Galaxy (beating IG.V and TNC), though they did poorly at Epicenter. NP, after failing to qualify for Kiev altered its roster, and has been playing better. At Manila, NP beat Secret, IG, and Faceless, losing to EG and OG. At the Summit, NP beat Empire and NAVI. They seem to consistently beat mid tier teams, but have difficulty vanquishing top teams. Even DC (formerly Onyx) has done ok since Kiev, though still not very well. Of the other teams, CompLexity still appears to be floundering. Maybe Team Freedom has a shot, but it looks unlikely.
NA Picks (2): Odd and NP (likely) DC (possibly) CompLexity and Freedom (unlikely)
South America has one team attending The International, and only five teams are invited to the Regional Qualifier. This region is the most likely of any region to send an Open Qualifier team. Of the teams available, SG attended Kiev and Infamous attended Galaxy. Of the two I'd go with SG.
SA Picks (1): SG (possibly), Infamous (maybe), other (possibly)
To wrap this up there are two more factors to illuminate. As mentioend earlier, there are eight premier tournaments between Kiev and TI7. Four of them contained top teams, and I would rank them as difficult: Epicenter, Manila, Mars, and the Summit. StarLadder and Galaxy had fewer good teams, placing them in the middle. But Zotac had only lower tier teams, most of who participated in no other premier tournaments, and DreamLeague only has four teams participating. Both of these are less influential than the others.
And finally, my ranking of the teams, which I will adjust after Mars and Dreamleague. Brackets indicate tournament victories, while non-victorious teams have a few quick comments beside their name:
Top Tier
1)Liquid (Starladder and Epicenter)
2)EG (Manila)
3)VP (Summit)
4)NB (Zotac and Galaxy)
5)Secret - strong performances at difficult tournaments
Mid Tier:
6)TNC - close to being a top tier team, but only played at weaker tournaments since Kiev
7)LGD.FY - good showing at Epicenter, need more data
8)ODD - ok at Epi and Galaxy
9)IG - not as good since Kiev, but still doing ok
10)NP - still unable to overcome top tier teams, but doing well against mid level opponents
11)DC - mid place finishes at Zotac and Summit
12)OG - doing poorly since Kiev, but still potentially dangerous
13)LGD - strong at Summit, need more data
Bottom Tier:
14)Faceless - Poor at Starladder, ok at Manila
15)SG - probably shouldn't be here, but upset Secret at Kiev
16)Fnatic - did ok at Zotac
17)Mouse - Did better than expected at Galaxy, but haven't played well since Boston
18)IGV - a number of teams are competing for last place but IGV have participated in more premier tournaments than most others teams.
If you're following the scene, feel free to comment or share your own top 5 (or 18).
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