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| Different Actors, Same Errors |
As this week drew to a close, the Senate voted 67-27 to invoke cloture, allowing a vote on the final version of the first bill, currently called the Bipartisan Infrastructure Framework. Senate Majority Leader, Chuck Schumer, vowed a vote soon, as the Minority Leader asked for additional time to review the bill and vote on amendments.
Either way, a final vote passing the $550 infrastructure bill, will likely happen by 8/14. This would be a tragedy, or at least, the beginning of one (Another possible tragedy is Republicans waste time, by continually pretending to have ten votes for the bill, but with an endless list of expanding demands).
Once it passes, the House can either approve the bill, alter it, or reject it. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi vowed to not approve the bill, unless its counterpart passes concurrently. This second bill contains the priorities of the Democratic party, including a series of promises made by Biden in his Build Back Better program (yes, programs have corny names written for propaganda purposes).
The Senate calendar lists a vacation from August 9th to September 10th. Unless there is a method of recalling Senators, no business will be conducted for a month. The Senate will not pass the Build Back Better bill before they recess. The House will be stuck in a bind. If they adjust the bill, the Senate has to approve the alterations on their return. Unless the House passes the exact copy, the bill languishes for a month.
A month of Republican public relation opportunities. Imagine it, Republicans on Fox News, Newsmax, and the Wall Street Journal, but also CNN, NBC, and ABC, telling the American people that Democrats are holding up a critical infrastructure bill for partisan gain. Not only a critical one, but a bipartisan one (five to ten Republicans and forty-five to fifty Democrats). Imagine the outrage they could create, and rightly so. Democrats were masterly outmaneuvered (unless one takes the cynical view – they lost purposefully).
Democrats committed a fatal mistake. They should never have split Biden's bill in half. The statements from party leaders imply that they did so to secure a bipartisan agreement. They did this to demonstrate their ability to compromise, but Republicans will use the divide in the Democratic Senate to paint them as intransigent.
The unified bill (which incorporated key aspects of the Build Back Better plan) included funds for conventional infrastructure, plus the Democratic priorities of reducing climate change, investing in new technologies, providing internet to under-serviced communities, expanding affordable housing and childcare, while reducing economic inequality by increasing taxes on the wealthy and mega-corporations. Like the individual elements of the Affordable Care Act, these positions are politically popular. Democrats could have passed the whole package. When Republicans voted en mass against it, Democrats could have highlighted their no votes, to show the public who was interested in improving their lives, and who was not.
Instead, Democratic leadership bowed to the hard-line resistance of Democratic Senators Manchin and Sinema. The pair said they would not back a Democrat only bill. Biden publicly agreed with the renegades, hoping to secure a bipartisan agreement. Five Republican (led by Susan Collins) and five Democratic Senators crafted the bill now moving through the Senate.
Not only is the Manchin/Collins bill vastly inferior to the bill proposed by Senate Budget Committee Chairman, Bernie Sanders, but it is also wretched compared to the original outlines of Biden's original bill. Size also matters. Centrist Democrats pretend the bill is $1.2 trillion, because they want it to seem larger than it is. They know the public wants action, and want to pretend they are acting. But the bill only contains $500 billion in new spending, with more than half of it spent from repurposed Coronavirus Aid (which seems especially unforgivable since the pandemic is surging again). The new expenditures are paid for the with usual fair deals; public-private partnerships which will allow businesses to gouge the public for cash to use “public” infrastructure, adding an additional fee to electric vehicles, and raising the price of the gas tax (Democrats wanted to pay for part of the deal by funding the IRS so the agency could chase down wealthy tax cheats – millionaires and billionaires - but Republicans rejected the idea).
Long ago, when the process began, when Schumer allowed the two aspects of infrastructure to split, he and Nancy Pelosi promised to only pass the Collins/Manchin deal if Congress also passed the Democratic priorities through reconciliation.
How long will Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer hold out? For all intents and purposes, Schumer has already caved, seeking to pass this insufficient bill, without any vote for the reconciliation deal in the schedule.
How can they hold out?
Democratic priorities, like the core components of the Affordable Care Act, are popular individually. They poll well with independents and phenomenally with Democrats. But Republicans under Mitch McConnell have demonstrated they are experts at demonizing bills, even when their contents benefit the public.
If the Senate passes the bipartisan deal, and not the reconciliation bill, how long can the House resist? If Pelosi refuses to vote on the Manchin/Collins deal, or the progressive wing votes it down, Republicans will call Democrats uncompromising. Nothing will pass, and Republicans will transform Democratic failure into a PR victory. They will hammer Democrats as do nothing, as unable to compromise. In a sick way, the circumstances will prove them right, because of the way the Democrats crafted the compromise.
Biden, Pelosi, and Schumer were too afraid to force Manchin and Sinema, so they capitulated to them. By demanding a bipartisan bill, Manchin and Sinema surrendered to Mitch McConnell. So the Democratic party, which made promises, and controls the Presidency, Senate, and House has relinquished control of their legislative term to the Republican party.
Mitch McConnell and the GOP want to pass the bipartisan agreement. The United States needs additional funding for infrastructure, and this amount aligns with their beliefs. McConnell wanted to pass a similar bill while Trump was president, to secure a victory for Republicans (everyone remembers the legislative train wreck of Trump, and the endless reiterations of substanceless infrastructure week). But McConnell also wants to use this opportunity to divide Democrats and weaken their electoral performance. It's difficult to see how he loses.
If Pelosi and House progressives ultimately agree to pass the insufficient infrastructure bill, they will have no pressure on Manchin and Sinema. If Democratic leaders couldn't compel Manchin and Sinema to pass Democratic priorities through reconciliation, how will they pressure them, when the policies which Manchin and Sinema want passed, are already passed?
Manchin and Sinema will refuse to pass the reconciliation bill either way. They have repeatedly indicated their intention to vote against reconciliation, just as they will not reform or eliminate the filibuster.
Biden agreed to concede his advantage, to throw away his leverage, and sacrifice his priorities, to allow Republicans to choose their own bill, just so he could affix a big shiny badge upon himself: BIPARTISAN. The 2022 midterm election will demonstrate whether he made the correct political call.
But even if the 2022 election resounds
in the Democrats favor, the bipartisan bill is
insufficient.
Democrats can't afford to pass the bipartisan
bill unless they also pass the reconciliation bill. It's too late to
adjust tactics. Democratic leadership already lost. But they need
to muddle through somehow. Otherwise the world ends up with no plan
to curb global warming. The party in power loses elections in the
midterms. The Democrats shouldn't expect any less. And this may be
the last chance in a decade for the United States to pass serious
climate legislation.
The only leverage to passing their objectives, of lifting up the people, and protecting the planet from devastating climate change, is the basic infrastructure in the Manchin/Collins bill. Progressive must sink the insufficient bill, only voting to pass it if the reconciliation bill passes simultaneously.
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